Northern mountainous states continue to have a rain-snow deficit in the month of January. Halfway through the month, the hilly states of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand have a shortfall of 80%, 85% and 81% respectively. Such large deficiencies become difficult to catch up with, as the season advances. Though, these are still the early days, and the region is likely to have a decent spell of rain-snow during the next one week.
The remnant of the western disturbance is still moving across Jammu- Kashmir. Another western disturbance is approaching on 18th Jan. Yet another weather system will follow on 20th Jan. The series of these weather systems will keep the rain-snow activity going across the mountains for the next about one week. The spread and intensity, of course, will vary. Peak weather activity is expected between 20th and 22nd January 2025.
The third weather system between the 20th and 23rd of January will have induced cyclonic circulation over the plains. The two, together will reinforce and complement each other to increase the scale and coverage. Hills and plains will simultaneously have the weather activity for almost three days in a row, the longest so far.
A caution is extended for heavy rain and snow, possibly with some hailstorm activity as well, between the 20th and 23rd Jan. All the popular destinations across Srinagar, Pahalgam, Sonamarg, Gulmarg, Manali, Dalhousie, Shimla, Mukteshwar are expected to have snowfall. It could be one of the intense spells impacting communication and connectivity. Roads are likely to get blocked and air operations may also get hit, by the accumulation of snow on the airstrips. Water bodies and popular streams will once again get frozen. The fag end of Chillai-Kalan for Kashmir Valley is likely to be harsher than before.
