Winter Rains For Rajasthan, Hailstorm Likely Few Places

The Plains of North India rejuvenated the first typical winter rains on 31^st Jan and 01^st Feb 2024. Punjab and Haryana had the bigger share and parts of Rajasthan were murkier and gloomy with some fleeting showers at few places.  More showers with a decent spread across the state are likely over the upcoming weekend. The middle and upper layers of the atmosphere are in support of hailstorms at a few places.

The first set of western disturbances and the induced cyclonic circulation has moved away.  The second pair is tracking very close and will impact the state of Rajasthan anytime soon.  Western disturbance is approaching the Western Himalayas tomorrow. However, the induced cyclonic circulation, a little ahead of the main system, is marked over central and adjoining northern parts of Pakistan. With a deep moisture layer from the Arabian Sea, the multilayered clouds have already breached the border posts of extreme West Rajasthan.  Further advance over the rest of the state is becoming favourable for weather activity, with decent cover over the next 2 days, Saturday & Sunday. 

Isolated light rainfall is likely over West Rajasthan today. On 03^rd and 04^th Feb, large parts of the state will observe moderate rain and thundershowers. However, extreme southern districts of the state covering Udaipur, Pratapgarh, Dungarpur and Banswara may be left out, being far from the reach of the system. A hailstorm is likely over some places in West Rajasthan on 03^rdFeb and more places over East Rajasthan on 04^th Feb. Preferred locations for the hailstorm activity are Bikaner, Jaisalmer, Nagaur, Jodhpur in West Rajasthan and Jaipur, Ajmer, Dausa, Tonk and neighbourhood over East Rajasthan.

The remnant effect of the weather systems will remain over east and northeast Rajasthan. Cloudy sky and light rains, for short durations quite likely on 05^th and 06^th Feb 2024. Large clearance can be expected from 07^th Feb onward. No more rains are likely for the subsequent week. A fair amount of sunshine and a rise in the day temperature will drive most parts into the comfort zone.