May is the rainiest month for Kerala during the pre-Monsoon season, with the average rainfall for most of the areas above 200 mm. Moderate to heavy rains are usual sight for the during the month. But this not have been the case this season.
During the last 24 hours few districts of state managed to record light to moderate rainfall, with few intense spells. However, we are afraid that famous Kerala rains remained in hiding. Thiruvananthapuram recorded 57.6 mm of rain in span of 24 hours from 8:30 am on Thursday. In fact, this was the highest rainfall the city has recorded during the month so far.
Other places such as Kurudamannil recorded 17.2 mm, Kuppady 16.8 mm, Karipur 16.2 mm, Thodupuzha 14 mm, Munnar 10.2 mm, Kannur 8.3 mm, and Perumbavur 2 mm.
According to Skymet Weather, weather conditions remain favorable for some more spells of light to moderate rains during the next 48 hours. Thereafter, we would see dip in rainfall and the state would manage to see some light rains only with some isolated intense spells due to proximity to the coast.
These ongoing rains could be attributed to the north-south trough running from central parts of the country till Peninsular India. This trough is a semi-permanent feature during this time of the year, which keeps oscillating from east to west. Also, presently winds are aligned to the coast, which are not instrumental in bringing significant rains to the coast.
Dismissal performance by Kerala rains in pre-Monsoon season
As per weathermen, the above-mentioned trough is primarily responsible for pounding rains over the state. However, this trough remained weak throughout the season. Even it got activated, it remained far from Kerala. Besides this, absence of any strong weather system during the season also resulted in low rainfall.
In fact, the state has been battling huge seasonal deficiency to the tune of 54%, while May performed poorest with 81% deficit till now. From March 1 to May 23, Kerala has recorded mere 137.6 mm of rain against the normal average of 298.2 mm. For May, the state has recorded 29.1 mm of rainfall against the normal of 158.3 mm. In fact, several districts are witnessing record low rainfall this month.
With pre-Monsoon season coming to an end with just seven days in hand, the picture does not seem to be very bright for Kerala. The state is staring at drought like conditions, with rains refusing to make way to Kerala.
Even the moderate rains in offing during the next 48 hours and light rains thereafter would not able to save Kerala. The margin is huge and would not be able to recover to even 50% in the left-over days.
Monsoon 2019 is now the only hope for the residents of the state. Skymet Weather has already predicted onset of Monsoon over Kerala around June 4, with an error margin of +/- 2 days. However, we cannot pin much hopes with that, as weather models are indicating towards a weak onset.
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com