The weekly forecast brought out by Skymet last week, predicted that East and Northeast India would be the activity centre. By and large, the week gone-by panned out similar to predictions. Extensive rain activity had been observed over Sub Himalayan West Bengal, Bihar and parts of Uttar Pradesh.
Last week raised flood havoc in the above states but reduced state-wise rain deficiencies considerably. National rain deficit kept hovering around 18% throughout the week.
Entire northern plains remained mainly dry throughout the week. As reiterated by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the hilly states received good showers during the weekend. Uttarakhand had to bear the brunt of heavy showers as flood related accidents claimed more than 50 lives.
We’ll now take a look at the weather forecast for this week.
North India:
With the Monsoon trough lying closer to the foothills, rain in the hilly states of North India was accentuated by a Western Disturbance. This week commences with the trough still lying close to the foothills with an embedded cyclonic circulation lying in the lower levels over Sub Himalayan West Bengal and north Bihar.
In the absence of any Western Disturbance at present, the hilly states of North India could observe only light rain due to localised activities. But the plains will remain mainly dry throughout the week.
East & Northeast India:
Intensity of rain will decrease over these parts during the first half of the week. Nevertheless, Southwest Monsoonwill gain strength in pockets of Sub Himalayan West Bengal and North Bihar from the second half. East & Northeast India will remain the most active region throughout the week.
Central India:
Southwest Monsoon will remain subdued over Central India this week as well. Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, east Rajasthan will remain dry but few light spells cannot be ruled out due to localised weather activities.
South India:
The cyclonic circulation over westcentral Bay of South Andhra Pradesh and North Tamil Nadu will weaken but remain strong enough to bring good showers over coastal Andhra Pradesh, interiors of Rayalaseema and Karnataka for next 48 hours.
The system will move inwards by the second half of the week and give scattered rain over Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. The highly rain deficit sub-division of Telangana, Marthawada and Madhya Maharashtra will get some relief as the rain belt could travel up to these areas.
West coast:
The west coast has been keeping quiet since last few days and this situation likely to continue for next the 48 hours. An off-shore trough running from Mahrashtra to Kerala will increase rain along the west coast, particularly coastal Karnataka from 21st onwards. Honnavar, Karwar, Kottayam and adjoining areas could receive good showers.
