Arnab Weakens Inland, but Rain Threat Persists Across Central India
Key Takeaways:
- Cyclone Arnab has weakened into a depression, centred approximately 20 km west of Jagdalpur at 5:30 AM IST on October 29, 2026.
- Very heavy rainfall remains possible over Chhattisgarh, Odisha and eastern Madhya Pradesh on October 29 despite the weakening circulation.
- The depression is expected to move nearly northwards and weaken into a well-marked low-pressure area by the evening of October 29.
- Rainfall intensity is expected to decrease on October 30, with no significant rainfall anticipated on October 31, although scattered light showers may continue.
- Forecast Validity: October 29–31, 2026 (Next 3 Days)
Advertisement
Advertisement
Arnab has weakened substantially, but its inland circulation continues to pose a rainfall threat across parts of central and eastern India. The former cyclone had become a deep depression near the adjoining areas of northern Andhra Pradesh, southern Odisha, southern Chhattisgarh and northeastern Telangana. There are chances of very heavy rainfall over Chhattisgarh, Odisha and eastern Madhya Pradesh, making persistent downpours the principal concern as the coastal wind threat diminishes.
The Deep Depression (remnant of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “Arnab”) over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining areas of south Odisha, south Chhattisgarh and northeast Telangana moved nearly northwards at a speed of 22 kmph during the past 6 hours, weakened into a Depression, and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST today, October 29, over south Chhattisgarh and adjoining south Odisha near latitude 19.0°N and longitude 81.9°E, about 20 km west of Jagdalpur (Chhattisgarh), 170 km southwest of Bhawanipatna (Odisha), 210 km southwest of Titlagarh (Odisha), 250 km south of Raipur (Odisha), and 350 km southwest of Sambalpur (Odisha). It is very likely to continue moving nearly northwards and weaken into a well-marked low-pressure area around the evening of October 29, 2026.
The circulation is losing strength because movement over land interrupts its oceanic energy supply and increases friction. Nevertheless, considerable moisture remains available around the system. Converging winds can continue lifting this moisture into persistent rain-bearing clouds, particularly where terrain enhances the upward motion. Consequently, a reduction in cyclone intensity should not be interpreted as an immediate end to local flooding or disruption from heavy rain.
High-intensity rainfall may continue on October 29 as well over Chhattisgarh, Odisha and eastern Madhya Pradesh. Their warning categories reduce on October 30, although eastern Madhya Pradesh retains thunderstorms and lightning. On October 31, we do not expect any significant rain over these areas; however, light scattered rain may continue. This means an easing trend is expected over the next 48–72 hours, but it does not guarantee completely dry weather or immediate recovery of waterlogged fields and roads.
Farmers should protect harvested produce and inspect field drainage only when conditions permit safe outdoor work. Travellers should avoid submerged crossings, while residents near streams should follow local instructions if water levels rise. Along Andhra Pradesh, the overnight coastal bulletin still indicated rough to very rough seas despite reduced port signals. Fishing operations should resume only after the relevant harbour and fisheries authorities clear them, rather than solely because Arnab has weakened.
