Cyclone Arnab Heads for Andhra Coast, Landfall on October 28

Key Takeaways:

• Cyclone Formation: Cyclonic Storm Arnab formed over the central Bay of Bengal on October 26 and is forecast to intensify into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm by October 27.
• Expected Landfall: The cyclone is likely to cross the Andhra Pradesh–Yanam coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam during the forenoon of October 28.
• Wind and Rainfall: Maximum sustained winds of 115–125 kmph, gusting to 140 kmph, and isolated extremely heavy rainfall are expected over coastal Andhra Pradesh.
• Impact and Precautions: Coastal districts face risks of flooding, infrastructure damage and transport disruption, requiring residents and fishermen to follow official safety advisories.
• Forecast Validity: As per the development of the cyclone.

Cyclonic Storm Arnab formed over the central Bay of Bengal early on Monday and is forecast to strengthen rapidly while moving towards Andhra Pradesh. At 5:30 AM IST on October 26, the storm was centred about 650 kilometres east-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 910 kilometres east of Bapatla. The India Meteorological Department expects it to cross the Andhra Pradesh–Yanam coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam during the forenoon of October 28.

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Arnab intensified from a deep depression while moving nearly westwards at approximately 15 kilometres per hour. The storm is expected to turn west-northwestwards and become a severe cyclonic storm by midnight on October 26, followed by further intensification into a very severe cyclonic storm on October 27. Its organisation is being supported by favourable oceanic and atmospheric conditions over the west-central Bay of Bengal, although the precise landfall point may still change.

Marine conditions will deteriorate well before landfall. Gale winds of 80–90 kmph, gusting to 100 kmph, are forecast over the west-central and adjoining east-central Bay by Monday evening. Winds along the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coast may increase from 40–50 kmph on Tuesday morning to 90–100 kmph, gusting to 110 kmph, by Tuesday evening. Fishermen and small vessels should remain out of the central and western Bay.

At landfall on Wednesday morning, October 28, maximum sustained winds are expected to reach 115–125 kmph, gusting to 140 kmph. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh on October 27 and 28, accompanied by squalls and intense thunderstorms. Visakhapatnam, Kakinada, the Godavari districts, Krishna, Guntur and Bapatla should closely follow district-level warnings as the track becomes more certain.

Strong winds may damage vulnerable buildings, trees, power and communication lines, while prolonged rain could flood low-lying roads and disrupt rail, road and air travel. Coastal residents should secure loose objects, charge essential devices and keep medicines and documents ready. Any evacuation instructions from local authorities should be followed promptly. Conditions are expected to improve gradually after landfall, but hazardous winds and rain may continue into Wednesday evening.