Early Withdrawal Of Monsoon From Mumbai: Hot Days Lie Ahead

Key Takeaways:

• Southwest monsoon has withdrawn from Mumbai five days ahead of its normal date of 08th October.
• Santacruz ended June-September with 2530 mm rainfall, a seasonal surplus of 9%, while Colaba remained 7% deficient.
• Santacruz recorded 36.1°C after the monsoon retreat, nearly 4°C above normal.
• Mumbai and its suburbs are likely to remain dry over the next ten days, raising the possibility of a rainfall-deficient October.
• Forecast validity: 05–15 October 2026

Southwest monsoon has made an early exit from Mumbai and its suburbs. The retreat has come five days ahead of its normal date of 08th October. The city witnessed its last spell of monsoon showers on 30th September 2026 and has gone dry thereafter.

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On most occasions, the monsoon vacates the city around 10th October or later. During the last two years, the monsoon had retreated after the scheduled date: 15th October in 2024 and 11th October in 2025. However, in the El Niño year 2023, the monsoon made a slightly early exit on 06th October. The earliest-ever withdrawal from the city was on 30th September 2002.

Monsoon season 2026 had remained quite erratic for the city. The city’s Santacruz observatory recorded a shortfall of 29% rainfall in June, but there was a deluge in July when the city had a surplus of nearly 55% rainfall. July happens to be the rainiest month of the season. Later, for the months of August and September, the observatory registered rainfall deficits of 35% and 49%, respectively.

For the regional observatory at Colaba, though the pattern was the same, the figures were completely different. The months of August and September were highly deficient, and the observatory rainfall record plunged to a shortfall of 188% and 101%, respectively.

This year, the rainfall pattern had remained disproportionate, and the drowning rains of July largely made up for the season’s quota. Despite three out of four months recording lesser rains, the city still registered an excess of seasonal rainfall.

In total, Santacruz amassed 2530 mm of rainfall from June to September, against the normal of 2318.8 mm, an overall surplus of 9%. However, the respective figures for Colaba project an opposite picture, and the observatory accumulated a total of 1957.1 mm rainfall against the normal of 2102 mm, a seasonal deficit of 7%.

After the retreat of the monsoon, temperatures have risen above normal. Yesterday, the Santacruz observatory recorded a day maximum of 36.1°C, about 4°C above normal. A similar trend is likely for the next few days, albeit with a few exceptions. The dip in temperature will only be on account of the setting in of the sea breeze.

The month of October has an average rainfall of 91.3 mm. However, this rainfall is subject to the duration of monsoon activity. In case of an early withdrawal, the city and suburbs observe absolutely scanty showers.

In 2023, another El Niño year, the monsoon withdrew before time on 06th October. The city observatory recorded only 11.1 mm rainfall in October 2023. With the early retreat of the monsoon this year, the city may record low rainfall this month as well. As such, no rainfall is likely for the city and suburbs during the next ten days.

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