Odisha and Chhattisgarh Face Expanding Heavy-Rain Threat

Key Takeaways:

• Odisha Rainfall Alert: Cyclone Arnab is expected to bring isolated extremely heavy rainfall to Odisha on October 27 and 28, accompanied by thunderstorms and locally intense rain spells.
• Chhattisgarh and Telangana Impact: Chhattisgarh faces isolated extremely heavy rainfall on October 28 and 29, while Telangana may experience similar conditions on October 28.
• Rainfall Expands Inland: By October 29, isolated very heavy rainfall may affect eastern Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand, while Vidarbha could receive heavy rain.
• Flooding and Agricultural Risks: Repeated downpours may cause waterlogging, flooding of low-lying crossings, transport disruptions and difficulties with paddy harvesting and grain drying.
• Forecast Validity: October 27–29, 2026 (Next 3 Days)

A major inland rainfall episode is forecast across Odisha, Chhattisgarh and adjoining Telangana as Cyclone Arnab approaches the east coast and subsequently moves inland. The principal concern during October 27–29 will be intense rain extending beyond the immediate landfall zone, potentially affecting communities far from the sea. We expect isolated extremely heavy rainfall over Odisha on October 27 and 28, and over Chhattisgarh on October 28 and 29.

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The mechanism differs from the narrow coastal wind threat. Arnab’s broad circulation will transport moist air inland, while converging winds encourage sustained cloud development and repeated rain bands. After coastal crossing, friction and reduced oceanic energy should weaken the cyclone’s winds, but its circulation can continue producing substantial rainfall. Consequently, a weakening cyclone does not necessarily mean an immediate reduction in flooding potential across inland catchments.

During Tuesday, October 27, rainfall is expected to increase over Odisha, with thunderstorms and locally intense spells. Telangana also carries an isolated heavy-rain forecast. On Wednesday, isolated extremely heavy rainfall is indicated over Telangana and Chhattisgarh, as well as Odisha. Southern Odisha, southern Chhattisgarh and northeastern Telangana additionally face strong winds associated with the approaching circulation. Residents should take utmost precautions and identify the most exposed locations rather than assume uniform conditions throughout these states.

By October 29, the wet-weather focus is forecast to broaden towards eastern Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand, where isolated very heavy rainfall is possible. Vidarbha may also receive heavy rain. The precise placement of the heaviest bands will depend on Arnab’s coastal crossing and subsequent inland movement. Small changes in the track could shift the most persistent rain between neighbouring districts, making updated warnings especially important for transport operators and local administrations.

Repeated downpours may overwhelm drainage, flood low crossings and interrupt road connections, particularly where streams respond rapidly. Paddy harvesting and the drying of grain could be disrupted; harvested produce should be moved under cover and field drains kept clear where safely possible. People should avoid crossing flowing water and postpone non-essential travel during intense spells. Skymet identifies a significant rainfall hazard, but actual flooding will also depend on previous rainfall, soil saturation, river levels and local drainage.