El Nino To Continue Till Spring Season 2027

Key Takeaways:

• El Niño 2026 is rapidly intensifying, supported by strong surface and sub-surface warming across the equatorial Pacific.
• El Niño could peak around November-December 2026, with its climatic influence potentially extending into early 2027.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral, but models indicate the possibility of a positive IOD developing and strengthening in the coming months.
• MJO activity remains constrained by strong El Niño conditions, reducing the likelihood of a major monsoon system forming over the Indian Seas in the near term.
• Forecast Validity: Until Next Update.

The surface and sub-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have been rising sharply. It seems something extraordinary has been developing beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific, which assumingly has the power to reshape weather across the globe. Though the peak of El Niño is still a few weeks away, the event is continuing to intensify over the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

It is likely to be the strongest El Niño observed in the last 100 years and has the potential to be one of its exclusive kind in living memory so far. For that matter, any El Niño event has a past record of triggering droughts, torrential rains, extreme weather events and is feared for global temperature rise. The peak of the current event is likely to happen in November-December.

The last El Niño of 2023-24 ensured that 2024 got listed among the warmest years. Prior to that, the 2015-16 event triggered severe drought in West and East-Central Africa, jeopardizing the food security of more than 60 million people. The 1877 El Niño event is considered to be the strongest on record, with the temperature anomaly exceeding 3.5°C. However, the credibility of records from those good old days always leaves a suspicion because neither were there enough resources nor the steadfast and dependable technical superiority for the collection and collation of data.

Global temperatures have risen by an average of 1.4°C since then and there is an inherent fear of them shooting up further.

As per WMO, “El Niño continues to intensify steadily and is expected to dominate global climatic patterns in the Aug-Oct 2026 season, increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the world and driving significant shifts in rainfall patterns. Combined with exceptionally warm global oceans and the likelihood of positive IOD, the developing El Niño is expected to shape weather patterns across many parts of the world in months ahead.”

ENSO: Ocean and atmospheric indicators are becoming increasingly aligned and vindicate further strengthening of the El Niño event. The persistently strong negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) indicate further weakening of the Walker Circulation, consistent with continued El Niño development. The trade winds in the lower levels are literally on the verge of reversing and responding to the inherent warming of the Pacific Ocean. Additionally, the sub-surface warming is reinforcing the growth and sustenance of El Niño 2026-27.

The eastern half of the Niño region has been getting warmer at a faster pace. Niño 3.4, the marker index for El Niño, has had a steady temperature anomaly of 1.8°C for the past four weeks. The strong ocean-atmospheric coupling suggests a further rise in this anomaly to reach or exceed 2°C during September 2026.

IOD: The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral. Earlier, the index remained above the positive threshold of +0.4°C for three consecutive weeks. However, the index has now eased back into neutral over the past three weeks. Models continue to suggest the development of a positive IOD through the next quarter. But the magnitude of the index may not grow as large as forecast earlier during August 2026.

MJO: The Madden-Julian Oscillation signal is active, but the strength and phasing have been increasingly difficult to detect. The mean MJO signal for the next two weeks will remain nearly quasi-stationary and largely meander in Phases 5 & 6, between the Maritime Continent and Western Pacific. The odds of MJO continue to be tempered by strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, restricting its amplitude, just in and out of the inner circle. The pulse does not favour the formation of any major monsoon system over the Indian Seas.

El Niño is expected to intensify in the coming months, peaking towards the end of the year. The climate impact may even roll over to the first quarter of 2027. The IOD has the potential for strengthening and may peak between September-October 2026. The IOD has mostly remained dormant during the monsoon season so far and is likely to gain strength post the monsoon season, sometime in October 2026.