Very Heavy Rain to Lash Kerala and Lakshadweep, Karnataka Also at Risk

Key Takeaways:

• Kerala and Mahe may experience isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall on October 22, while Lakshadweep faces a similar risk on October 23 and 24, with very heavy rain also possible in Kerala on October 24.
• Persistent Arabian Sea moisture convergence and orographic lifting along the Western Ghats are supporting widespread showers, with isolated heavy rain possible over South Interior Karnataka, including areas around Bengaluru.
• Squally winds of 35–45 kmph, gusting to 55 kmph, may affect Kerala, Lakshadweep and adjoining coastal waters, while intense rain could cause localized waterlogging, reduced visibility and landslip risks.
• Forecast Validity: Squally winds of 35–45 kmph, gusting to 55 kmph, may affect Kerala, Lakshadweep and adjoining coastal waters, while intense rain could cause localized waterlogging, reduced visibility and landslip risks.

A broad rain belt across the southeastern Arabian Sea will keep Kerala, Lakshadweep and parts of Karnataka unsettled through 24 October. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is forecast at isolated places over Kerala and Mahe on 22 October. Lakshadweep may see heavy rain initially, followed by isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall on 23 and 24 October. South Interior Karnataka also has an isolated heavy-rain risk during this period, including areas around the Bengaluru region.

[Check your local weather forecast here]

This activity is linked to persistent moisture convergence across the Arabian Sea and southern peninsula. Moist southwesterly and westerly winds are meeting the broader cyclonic flow associated with weather systems around peninsular India. Orographic lifting along the Western Ghats further enhances cloud development over Kerala and adjoining Karnataka. The combination supports frequent showers, embedded thunderstorms and locally intense bursts, even though rainfall will not be equally strong across every district.

On 22 October, fairly widespread to widespread rain is likely over Kerala, Mahe and Lakshadweep, while coastal and South Interior Karnataka should also receive widespread activity. Heavy rain may become more concentrated over Lakshadweep on 23 October, with Kerala still facing isolated heavy falls. On 24 October, very heavy rain may return at isolated places over both Kerala and Lakshadweep, while heavy rain remains possible over South Interior Karnataka.

Marine conditions require particular attention. Squally winds of 35–45 kmph, gusting to 55 kmph, are forecast along and off Kerala and across the Lakshadweep area. Similar conditions are expected to extend towards the Karnataka coast from 23 October. Fishermen should comply with official restrictions, and operators of small craft should not treat quieter intervals between showers as evidence that the wider marine risk has ended.

Repeated downpours may cause temporary waterlogging, slower road traffic and reduced visibility in Kerala’s cities and ghat routes. Localized landslip risk can increase on steep, already saturated slopes, although conditions will vary with antecedent rainfall. Agricultural operations, particularly harvesting and drying of produce, may need rescheduling. Lightning precautions are advisable, and tourists should avoid exposed beaches, hill slopes and swollen streams during active weather.