Andaman Sea Low May Become Depression by October 31, Andhra Pradesh Coast on Alert for Heavy Rain

Key Takeaways:

• Depression Formation Likely: A fresh low-pressure area over the south Andaman Sea may intensify into a depression around October 31 while moving west-northwestward.
• Andaman Islands Face Heavy Rain: Very heavy rainfall and thundersqualls reaching 50–60 kmph, gusting to 70 kmph, are expected on October 30, followed by heavy rain on October 31.
• Andhra Pradesh Rainfall Threat: Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam may receive isolated heavy rainfall from November 1, with very heavy spells possible on November 2 and 3.
• Cyclone Formation Not Confirmed: Further intensification remains possible, but no specific cyclone category, landfall location or coastal crossing time has been established.
• Forecast Validity: October 30 – November 3, 2026

A fresh low-pressure area over the south Andaman Sea is becoming the next important weather system to monitor after Arnab. We expect it to move west-northwestwards and concentrate into a depression around October 31 over the southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman and Nicobar region. Further intensification is possible as it subsequently moves towards Andhra Pradesh, but the accessible guidance does not establish a cyclone category, precise coastal crossing point or landfall time.

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The low persisted over the south Andaman Sea on the evening of October 29. A developing circulation brings winds together near the surface, encouraging moist air to rise and thunderstorms to organise. Depression formation requires confirmation from subsequent observations; a low-pressure area should not be described as a depression merely because strengthening is forecast. The future intensity will depend on how the circulation consolidates and on the surrounding oceanic and atmospheric conditions.

The immediate impact is over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. We expect very heavy rain and thunderstorm-related weather on Friday, followed by heavy rain on October 31. The outlook also includes thundersqualls reaching 50–60 kmph, gusting to 70 kmph, on October 30. Rain should become less widespread from November 1. Travellers should check ferry and local transport advisories rather than assume all island services will operate normally.

For coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, isolated heavy rainfall enters the forecast on November 1, near the end of the next 72-hour period. The present outlook indicates a broader increase in rainfall thereafter, with very heavy falls possible on November 2 and 3. That later period remains beyond the immediate forecast window and will need reassessment as the system develops. Strong surface winds and thunderstorms remain relevant over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema in the meantime.

Fishing crews and marine operators should monitor successive sea-area bulletins because hazardous weather may develop before any coastal crossing. The absence of a named cyclone does not imply safe conditions close to a developing low. Coastal residents should remain informed without treating speculative tracks as settled forecasts. Farmers can use the intervening period to protect stored produce and inspect drainage, while avoiding premature decisions based on an unconfirmed landfall scenario.