Cyclonic Storm Over Arabian Sea: No Immediate Threat To Indian Coastline
The remnant of a low-pressure area over the Gulf of Kutch and neighbourhood entered the Arabian Sea and strengthened into a depression. It rapidly intensified further into a deep depression last night and gained additional strength to figure as the first cyclonic storm of this year in the Indian Seas. Earlier, in the pre-monsoon season, there were misleading reports of a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal in the month of May. The cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea will be named by member country Sri Lanka as ‘Shakhti’. The storm is centered around 21.5°N and 67°E, about 350 km south of Karachi and about 250 km west-southwest of Dwarka and Porbandar.
There is a strong subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone center. The ridge will push the storm a little southward. The steering current is expected to move the storm south-southwest for the next 48 hours and take it further deep into the ocean. During this period, the cyclone may intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm wherein the wind field crosses the 90 km/h mark and could speed up in excess of 100 km/h. The weakening and subsequent breaking of the ridge may reverse the track of the storm, making a loop and bringing it closer towards the Indian coastline after about 3–4 days.
The sea surface temperatures are not very warm in this part of the ocean at this time of the year. These temperatures are just within the margin of the threshold value of 26.5°C required for cyclogenesis. Therefore, it may not gain power any further. Rather, while reversing the track, it may encounter strong vertical wind shear and bring about the weakening of the system. From the time it reverses its track and moves towards the Gujarat coast, friction due to land proximity and dry air entrainment, coupled with a drop in heat content, may erode its strength much before landfall, if any.
There is no immediate threat to the coastline of Gujarat from the storm. Western parts of Saurashtra and Kutch will witness light to moderate rainfall, which will reduce in intensity as the storm tracks away from the coast. The threat level of the storm can be reassessed after 72 hours and acted upon accordingly. Notwithstanding the intensity of the storm, utmost caution and alert need to be observed till the danger gets over. Cyclonic storms are notorious for defying the track, timelines, and intensity, at times, inexplicably. A fresh call needs to be taken after 48 hours to decide the future course of action. The preparedness state should not be lowered and, if need be, should act and move on short notice.
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