Heavy Rains In Different Parts Do Not Soften Rain Deficit: August May End Sub-Par
Key Takeaways:
- ndia's seasonal monsoon rainfall deficit remained around 11-12% of LPA through August 11, following a largely deficient June and near-normal July.
- Central India is around the break-even stage, while East & Northeast India has the largest rainfall deficiency at 26%.
- Another weak monsoon system is expected, but its rainfall activity is likely to remain confined mainly to eastern states and adjoining central regions.
- Break monsoon conditions may develop around August 16, potentially raising the seasonal deficit and increasing the likelihood of August ending with below-normal rainfall.
- Forecast Validity: Next 3 to 5 days.
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June, the opening month of monsoon, was largely deficit with an overall shortfall in excess of 35% rainfall. The month of July, the core monsoon month, fared better and ended with 283.3 mm rainfall, about 1% above normal. Halfway through, the season closed with a deficiency of 13% rainfall. The month of August has been a dampener, and the first ten days have mostly registered sub-par rainfall.
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Between 01st and 11th August, the seasonal rainfall deficit has nearly stagnated at 11% to 12% of LPA. There was heavy rainfall in some parts of the country during this period, but spatial coverage was more or less scanty. Out of the four homogeneous regions of the country, only Central India is at the ‘break-even’ stage, and the rest of the regions are starved in pockets, with the largest deficiency of 26% over East & Northeast India.
Unlike in the month of July, there is no powerful monsoon system originating over the Bay of Bengal. Paucity of these systems has derailed the momentum of monsoon bursts observed earlier in July 2026. The main reason for their subjugation is attributable to the fierce typhoon activity over the Western Pacific. A very powerful typhoon ‘Dolphin’ ravaged the South China Coast over the last weekend. Some more storms are in waiting over different regions of the ocean across the Sea of Japan, East Philippine Sea and the farther parts of the West Pacific.
Strong storms over those parts, tracking along the South China Sea and West Philippine Sea, can temporarily alter large-scale atmospheric circulation and malign the monsoon stream flow over the Indian Seas. Such a pattern suppresses convection over the Bay of Bengal, leading to delay or decay of potential monsoon systems.
Two weak monsoon systems formed during the first ten days of August. The low-pressure areas and their associated circulations did manage to control any large rainfall deficiency. The intensity of rains was good, but the spread was limited to very small pockets. The existing low-pressure area over Northwest Madhya Pradesh has triggered heavy rains over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and parts of Rajasthan. This will weaken and merge with the monsoon trough in the next 24-36 hours.
Another system is likely to come up in the next about 24 hours. This will also be a weak system with limited reach. Rainfall activity will be confined to the eastern states and adjacent peripherals of central parts. This system, like its predecessors, will manage to restrict any drastic rise in the seasonal deficit. The daily rainfall, as such, will remain marginally below the normal figure, but still, the deficiency will stay at about 12% of LPA till mid-August.
The month of August remains more vulnerable to ‘break monsoon’ conditions. One such phase is likely to develop anytime around 16th August 2026. The duration of the ‘break’ is difficult to predict as of now, and more clarity will come in the next 2-3 days. Notwithstanding, such a condition restricts the rainfall to the foothills of the Himalayas, parts of Bihar, Sikkim-Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Northeast India.
Most other parts of the country remain dehydrated till the ‘break monsoon’ lasts. The rain deficit can rise during the period of the break phase. The revival of the monsoon takes place with the formation of a strong monsoon system over the Head Bay. The preliminary signs of any such phenomenon are still awaited.
‘Monsoon Breaks’ are notorious for lasting longer than a week and spoiling the rainfall distribution over the country. Looks like the month of August will end up with below-normal rains. A large rainfall deficit, if any, during August leaves a tough call to catch up during the modest month of September.
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