Heavy Rains Unlikely Over Mumbai Till Mid-September
Representational Image: AI-Skymet
Key Takeaways:
- Mumbai recorded only 36 mm of rainfall between August 20 and September 3, marking an unusually subdued monsoon phase.
- September's normal rainfall for Mumbai stands at 383.5 mm, but the month has historically shown extreme year-to-year variability.
- The weather systems typically responsible for intense Mumbai rainfall are currently either absent or positioned too far away to trigger strong monsoon bursts.
- Light and fleeting showers are expected over Mumbai till at least mid-September, while parts of Konkan may receive moderate showers through the weekend.
- Forecast Validity: Next one week.
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The month of August ended sub-par for the capital city Mumbai this monsoon season. Yes, July had a deluge earlier, recording 1485 mm rainfall against the monthly normal of 919.9 mm. Atypical of Mumbai, the Konkan city has recorded just 36 mm rainfall over the last two weeks, between 20th August and 03rd September 2026. Otherwise, September has a good track record of invariably exceeding the monthly normal of 383.5 mm rainfall. The city has also had extremes of weather activity when the Santacruz weather station recorded rainfall of 1115.7 mm in September 2019, and it was preceded by the lowest monthly rainfall of 73.1 mm in September 2018. Such is the variability of rainfall during the month of September.
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Mumbai gets accentuated rainfall activity associated with typical weather systems. An active offshore trough and streaming monsoon westerlies from the Arabian Sea striking the coastline head-on are two prominent situations for heavy rainfall. Neither of these two is anywhere near the coast. The third and most important condition for typical Mumbai monsoon rainfall is the low-pressure areas originating over the Bay of Bengal and travelling deep inland. These systems, while over West Madhya Pradesh and adjoining North Madhya Maharashtra and the border areas of Gujarat with Madhya Pradesh, are considered ideal for enhancing rainfall activity over Konkan in general and Mumbai in particular.
A remnant of the well-marked low-pressure area from the Bay of Bengal is now lying over the shared border region of North Madhya Pradesh and South Uttar Pradesh. It is unlikely to come closer and take a suitable position for Mumbai rains. The distant location of this low pressure will be unable to trigger the desired monsoon bursts over Mumbai. The weather system will start losing steam after about 24 hours and also shift further away, minimising the chance of any noticeable weather activity. At best, the Konkan region will get moderate showers for the next three days. However, the weather activity may remain confined to Sindhudurg, Ratnagiri and Raigad but stop short of Alibag, a stone's throw away from the capital city. All these parts of Konkan will have moderate showers till the weekend. Mumbai will continue with spells of light and fleeting showers and is unlikely to add any respectable total to the monthly rainfall. Mild monsoon activity will continue, at least, till mid-September. Fingers crossed for the second half of the month as well.
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