Low Pressure Area Over Arabian Sea Weakens: Heads Towards Africa Coast

Key Takeaways:

• System Weakens: The well-marked low-pressure area over the Southwest Arabian Sea has weakened into a low-pressure area and is moving westward towards Somalia.
• No Threat to India: The system is positioned near 10°N and 57°E, far from the Indian coastline, with little chance of recurving towards the Konkan or Gujarat Coast.
• Somalia Rainfall: The weakening low-pressure area is likely to reach the Somalia Coast on October 23, 2026, bringing scattered heavy rainfall to coastal and interior regions.
• Forecast Validity – October 21–23, 2026: The system is expected to move westward over the next 24 hours, subsequently turn west-southwestward and reach Somalia as a very weak feature by October 23.

The well-marked low-pressure area over the Southwest Arabian Sea has moved west-northwestward and weakened into a low-pressure area. It is likely to move westward in the next 24 hours and further lose its strength. In the last leg, the system will move west-southwestward and head for the Somalia Coast. The chain of weather systems moving across the equatorial region, from the South Bay of Bengal to the Arabian Sea, across the Comorin region and Maldives area, is pushing this low pressure further westward at a faster pace.

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As was predicted earlier, most of the weather systems forming over the Arabian Sea around this time move away from the Indian coastline. Once these systems reach the western half of the Arabian Sea and remain south of 15°N, they hardly stand any chance of recurving and threatening the Konkan or Gujarat Coast. The low-pressure area is now centred around 10°N and 57°E, rather far from the Indian coast and very close to the Somalia shore.

The sea surface temperatures are relatively cooler over the Southwest Arabian Sea and drop further near the Somali Coast. As such, weather systems degrade in proximity to landmass due to land interaction and dry air entrainment. The vertical wind shear becomes stronger, too. Under such environmental conditions, the sustenance of the system becomes rather difficult, and it invariably weakens. Quite often, weather systems get diffused over the sea itself or, at best, cross the coastline as cyclonic circulations. In the current case, the low pressure will make landfall as a very weak feature on 23rd October 2026. Scattered heavy rainfall is expected over the coast and interiors of Somalia.

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