Low Pressure Area Over Madhya Pradesh: Very Heavy Rains Till Weekend
Key Takeaways:
- Extremely heavy rainfall is possible over Madhya Pradesh, while moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over Uttar Pradesh during the next 48 hours.
- The low-pressure area, western disturbance and monsoon trough are acting together to intensify weather activity across the region.
- Gwalior, Bhopal, Shivpuri, Guna, Sagar, Lucknow, Kanpur, Prayagraj and Varanasi, among other locations, remain at risk.
- The next 72 hours are crucial, with threats of torrential rain, localised flooding, inundation, thunderstorms, strong winds and dangerous lightning.
- Forecast Validity: Next 72 hours.
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The well-marked low-pressure area over the Madhya Pradesh region has moved very slowly and is now lying over the border areas of North Madhya Pradesh and South Uttar Pradesh. The weather system is likely to move very slowly and linger over the same region with minor shifts here and there. It may lose strength after about 36 hours or so. However, it will have the potential to cause extremely heavy rains over Madhya Pradesh and heavy to moderate rainfall over Uttar Pradesh during the next 48 hours.
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Multiple factors are joining hands to accentuate the weather activity. The western disturbance as a north-south oriented trough, the low-pressure area over Madhya Pradesh having a convergence zone in the forward section, ahead of the centre of the system, and the seasonal east-west oriented monsoon trough will act in tandem to cause a deluge over large parts of Madhya Pradesh and some pockets of Uttar Pradesh. Very strong and striking weather activity is likely on 03rd and 04th September. As the system weakens slightly, the intensity may reduce a little, but the spread may increase on 05th, 06th and 07th September. The belt of intense weather will start shifting eastward to cover mostly parts of East Madhya Pradesh and Southeast Uttar Pradesh on 08th September. On 09th September, the inclement weather will vacate these two states and move over to Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh, albeit with a milder tone.
The places at risk for the next 48 hours will include Gwalior, Guna, Shivpuri, Sheopur, Ashok Nagar, Tikamgarh, Bhind, Morena, Datia, Panna, Sagar, Bhopal and adjoining parts. The contiguous parts of Uttar Pradesh will include Kanpur, Lucknow, Prayagraj, Fursatganj, Ayodhya, Hamirpur, Raebareli, Amethi, Varanasi, Azamgarh and Ballia. Madhya Pradesh will be extremely vulnerable to hazardous weather. Caution needs to be exercised even in Uttar Pradesh. The next 72 hours remain crucial and critical. Localised flooding, torrential rains, inundation of some areas, lightning, thunderstorms and strong winds will ‘rip through’ the weather-sensitive pockets of these states. Extreme caution needs to be observed to keep lives safe from powerful lightning strikes.
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