Monsoon Performs Beyond Expectations: But Not Without Some Glitches
Southwest Monsoon had made an early start this season and covered large parts of the country, both on the eastern and western front, well before time. However, the progress got stalled, and the further advance was literally halted between 26th May and 15th June. The monsoon stream gained accelerated pace again and covered the entire country, more than a week before the scheduled timelines. The first half of the monsoon, June-July, is rated as one of the best, but not without glitches. The spatial distribution of rainfall is lopsided and is spread across homogenous parts of the country.
The track record of the monsoon depicts rare occurrence of good rainfall simultaneously during the first half of the season. Between June and July, more often, at least one of these months performs poorly. Last, it was in Monsoon 2013, an ENSO-Neutral year, when June and July together remained above normal. Even the complete season also ended with above-normal rainfall (106% of LPA), albeit, September had a poor show with a shortfall of 12% rainfall.
Monsoon 2025 scored above-normal rainfall in June and led the season with a surplus of 9%. The bonhomie continued in July, and the season’s surplus mounted to 115% of LPA during the first ten days of the month. A slowdown of the monsoon activity followed over South Peninsula and a few other pockets. Yet, the seasonal rainfall between 01st June and 21st July 2025 stands at 106% of LPA. June and July both have surplus rainfall of 109% and 106% of long period average (LPA), respectively.
Still, there are some grey areas, and the seasonal rainfall is gravely deficient in some of the meteorological sub-divisions. To top it all, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya are rain-deficient by 45% and 47%, respectively. The margin of deficiency is huge and will be difficult to cover. In the northern plains, Bihar recorded a large shortfall of 55% rainfall. Courtesy, a spell of decent rains during the last week in some parts of the state, it has come down to 42% now. Contiguous parts of East Uttar Pradesh are also below normal with a shortage of 20% rainfall.
In the central parts of the country, the drought-prone pocket of Marathwada faces a scare of parched fields. The sub-division has observed scanty rains and has lived with a perpetual deficit of 45% rainfall through the season so far. As of today, the landlocked sub-division of Maharashtra is staring at a drought, with an overall deficit of 44% rainfall.
South Peninsula had a similar state of affairs. Rayalaseema’s deficit had earlier grown to 46% by mid-July. Again, courtesy good rains during the last week, the shortfall is shrinking but still the pocket is rain-starved with a deficiency of 22%. The state of Telangana also has joined the fray and slipped to the category of ‘deficit’ for the season. The surpluses of rainfall gained earlier by Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and South Interior Karnataka have been consumed, and these pockets are just on the thin margin of getting rated as ‘poor’.
So, while the monsoon has performed quite adequately over many parts of the country, and more so where it matters the most, yet there are serious concerns. The rainfall deficiency in the rainfed zone of eastern and central parts leaves some anxious moments for the farming community. And there is no substantial recovery likely over the central and southern parts of the country in the remaining days of July 2025.
