Monsoon Activity To Remain Sluggish Over South Peninsula
The monsoon is maintaining a good pace over the eastern, central, western, and northern parts of the country. Most of the sub-divisions in the Northwest and Central regions are experiencing excess seasonal rainfall, with the exception of Marathwada and Vidarbha. In the South Peninsula, there is a shortfall of seasonal rain over Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, and the Lakshadweep region. The earlier surplus in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Karnataka is gradually getting consumed. There has been no major monsoon activity over these areas for the past 10 days or more. Sluggish monsoon conditions are likely to continue over the South Peninsula.
The slower and subdued pace of the monsoon over South India can be attributed to the track of monsoon systems originating in the Bay of Bengal. Recently, most of these low-pressure areas and cyclonic circulations have been taking a northerly track along the Indo-Gangetic plains, moving parallel to the border between Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. As a result, states like West Bengal, Jharkhand, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh have recovered from their earlier shortfall. However, Bihar remains an outlier, still facing a rainfall deficiency of 35%.
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The current monsoon low-pressure area has weakened over Jharkhand and the surrounding region. However, the associated cyclonic circulation remains strong enough to sustain active to vigorous monsoon conditions over the eastern states, as well as Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Gujarat for the next week. Gradually, the rains will recede from the eastern parts and drift westward. The southern states do not appear to have the required impetus to revive monsoon activity. Rainfall will remain nearly absent over Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Kerala. These regions face the risk of growing rainfall deficits for at least another week. The delay in significant monsoon activity may cause growing concern among the farming community.
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