Heavy Rainfall Over South Peninsula; Kerala -Karnataka More Vulnerable

By: skymet team | Edited By: skymet team
Aug 4, 2025, 3:50 PM
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Following the shifting of the monsoon trough to the north of its normal position, conditions have become favourable for a weaker monsoon over western, central, and northern parts of the country. It is not a typical ‘break monsoon’ yet, wherein the monsoon trough shifts to the foothills all along the east-west stretch, but it still finds some simile of the pattern. Under ‘break-in-monsoon’ conditions, a low-pressure area or a cyclonic circulation comes up over the Bay of Bengal, off north Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh. Popularly, it is called the ‘Koteswaram’ low, based on his research work in the field.

Presently, as an offshoot of the ‘break’ conditions, there is a cyclonic circulation marked over the southwest Bay of Bengal, abeam north Tamil Nadu coast. A low-pressure area may form over the same region within 24–36 hours. Also, there is a north-south trough in the lower levels extending from north interior Karnataka to the extreme southern tip of Kerala, across Rayalaseema and south interior Karnataka. It has triggered a convergence zone over the interiors of Peninsular India. Under the combined influence of these systems, fairly widespread weather activity with scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh.

Today, heavy rainfall is likely over Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka, and south Kerala. Anantpur, Kurnool, Chittoor, Bengaluru, Mysuru, Mandya, Kochi, Thiruvananthapuram, and adjoining parts are likely to have heavy rainfall. The border areas of Tamil Nadu with Kerala may also have moderate rainfall activity. Intensity and spread will increase on 05th & 06th August. Kerala is likely to witness very heavy downpour with isolated pockets having extremely heavy rainfall. Most weather activity will shift northward across south coastal Andhra Pradesh on 07th and 08th August. Broad clearance is expected over the entire region from 09th August onwards.

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Disclaimer: This content is based on meteorological interpretation and climatological datasets assessed by Skymet’s forecasting team. While we strive to maintain scientific accuracy, weather patterns may evolve due to dynamic atmospheric conditions. This assessment is intended for informational purposes and should not be considered an absolute or guaranteed prediction.

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