Monsoon Withdrawal Soon From Delhi: Dry Weather Week Ahead
Image: AI-Skymet
Dry weather conditions prevailed over Delhi/NCR for the last three days. The weekend was hot and sultry, and the mercury remained above 35°C, marginally above normal, during this period. The surface and low-level winds were stronger than normal, more so in the afternoon hours. The relative humidity also dropped during the latter half of the day. All these changes hint at the likely cessation of the ongoing monsoon season.
There is no rain likely over Delhi/NCR during this week. The western disturbance has cleared the mountain states. The trough along the foothills, which earlier caused rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday last, has flaked out. The hills are also likely to be sun-filled like the plains. There is anticyclonic curvature in the winds indicating dominance of high pressure. The moisture levels are likely to slump further, paving the way for increased heat and warmer winds. The withdrawal criterion of monsoon needs: no rain for five days, a drop in the humidity levels in the low and medium levels, and an anticyclonic setup in the wind pattern. By and large, all the parameters are getting in place and favor monsoon withdrawal, anytime soon.
The normal date of withdrawal for monsoon from Delhi is 29th September. The southwest monsoon has already withdrawn from the whole of West Rajasthan, Kutch, and outer parts of Punjab and Haryana. There has been no rainfall over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and East Rajasthan during the last two days. It is expected to remain mostly dry during this week. Many places have recorded temperatures of 35° or more over these parts. All these are the indicators for the announcement of withdrawal from Delhi, anytime soon.
There is a monsoon low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal. Another one is likely after about 3–4 days. These systems will move inland but will not reach as far west as over northern and western plains. At best, some clouds may come up over the Delhi region, but not before the end of this week. There is no strict norm for complete cessation of rains after the withdrawal of monsoon. So, even if cloud cover approaches the Delhi region with some chance of a sprinkle late next weekend, it does not violate the withdrawal criterion for the capital city. Following these guidelines, the monsoon withdrawal from Delhi is likely to commence very soon, possibly within the next 48 hours.
