Very Heavy Rains Unlikely Over Mumbai Till Mid-September: Moderate Showers On Weekend
Moderate Rain Expected Across Parts of Mumbai, Image: AI-Skymet
After experiencing drowning rains in the third week of August, Mumbai has generally remained quiet, except for a single day over the last weekend. The airport observatory at Santacruz has recorded an insignificant amount of rainfall in the first three days of September. The month of September has a normal rainfall average of 341.4 mm. Monsoon withdrawal commences only around 10th October, so spells of good rain remain frequent during this month.
The westerly monsoon stream along the Konkan Coast remains mild. The normal offshore trough continues to be flattened. The monsoon system evolving over the Bay of Bengal is the only hope for a revival of seasonal showers at the earliest. However, typical Mumbai heavy rains will remain elusive and are unlikely to occur during the first fortnight of September. Some uptick in weather activity is expected around the upcoming weekend.
The low-pressure area over the northwest Bay of Bengal has become well-marked. But historically, September monsoon systems remain low on energy and therefore lack the spread and scale of weather activity. The low pressure is likely to cross the coast tomorrow and track across Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Gujarat. The system is likely to reach the tri-junction of South Rajasthan, North Gujarat, and North Madhya Maharashtra on 5th September and later get placed over Saurashtra & Kutch on 6th September. Such a position of any monsoon system favors an increase in weather activity over the Konkan Coast in general and Mumbai in particular.
The city of Mumbai will continue to remain silent for the next two days. Moderate intermittent showers, with decent breaks in between, are likely on Friday and Saturday. The remnant effect may be seen on the 7th as well, with patchy fleeting showers over some parts for limited duration. As the weather system exits Gujarat on 8th September, the entire West Coast will see a retraction of monsoon activity during the second week of September. Mumbai will have to wait for fresh monsoon systems to catch up with the monthly rainfall of September.
