Least Monsoon Activity Over Rajasthan For One Week
State of Rajasthan has been drenched this monsoon season. Both East and West Rajasthan are rain surplus by a huge margin. As such, the monsoon had arrived earlier than normal over the entire state and, thereafter, a series of monsoon systems have impacted the region—otherwise known for sparse monsoon activity, more so for West Rajasthan.
Monsoon season has a four-month duration from June to September. However, the state has an active monsoon period not exceeding 60 days. Normally, the monsoon arrives in the first week of July and starts retreating in the beginning of September. East Rajasthan scores over West and has nearly double the normal rainfall.
As of now, between 01st June and 04th Aug 2025, the normal rainfall for the two sub-divisions is 333 mm and 160 mm respectively. Both of these are rain surplus with an excess of 80% seasonal rainfall. There is going to be a slowdown in the weather activity for the next one week or even more. The rainfall, if any, will be very light and that too limited to parts of East Rajasthan.
Currently, ‘break monsoon’ conditions are prevailing, and the rainfall is confined to a limited area. The western end of the monsoon trough, which mostly activates the rains over Rajasthan, has shifted far to the north in the foothills. There was no or minimal weather activity for the last three days over the entire region. The mercury has risen to remain in high 30s. For the next three days, similar conditions will prevail over the state with the least amount of rainfall. The temperatures will be on the rise and may breach 38°C over border posts of West Rajasthan.
An in-situ circulation is coming up over parts of Madhya Pradesh on 08th Aug 2025. The westward movement of the system will bring it closer to the periphery of the state. Also, the trough line will shift southward and usher moist easterlies, more prominently over the eastern half of the state. Light rainfall over some parts of the state is quite likely between 09th and 12th August. Heavy rainfall is ruled out during this period. A fresh weather system is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal on 11th Aug. This system will strengthen and travel deep over parts of the state. A fresh spell of good rains is likely at the start of the second half of August.
