Rajasthan Weather Turns Dry, Weak Monsoon Conditions Ahead

Key Takeaways:

• Rajasthan is likely to experience significantly weaker monsoon activity during the remaining part of August.
• Most parts of the state may remain dry, with only isolated light rain or thundershowers expected.
• Rainfall deficits of 12% in West Rajasthan and 15% in East Rajasthan could increase if the dry spell persists.
• Rising sunshine and fewer rainy days are likely to push temperatures gradually higher across the state.
• Forecast Validity: Rest of the August.

The 2026 monsoon has so far been quite good for Rajasthan, with several weather systems originating over the Bay of Bengal moving across central India and bringing good rainfall over parts of East and South Rajasthan. Repeated rainy spells during July and the first half of August have also improved soil moisture and water availability, with many reservoirs receiving good inflows.

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However, the weather pattern is now changing. Rainfall activity over Rajasthan is likely to decline significantly, and the state may remain largely dry during the remaining part of August.

The weather systems currently developing over the northwest Bay of Bengal are expected to move towards Northeast Madhya Pradesh and Southeast Uttar Pradesh. These systems are likely to weaken before reaching Rajasthan. At the same time, cyclonic circulations over Southwest Rajasthan and adjoining areas are also expected to gradually fade.

As a result, we do not expect any significant weather system to affect Rajasthan during the next couple of weeks. Only isolated light rain or thundershowers may occur in a few areas, while most parts of the state are likely to remain dry.

According to rainfall data up to August 16, West Rajasthan has a 12% deficit and East Rajasthan a 15% deficit, although both regions are currently in the normal category. If the dry spell continues, the cumulative rainfall deficiency may increase, and Rajasthan could gradually move into the deficient rainfall category.

For farmers, there is no immediate reason for concern, as the state has already received useful rainfall during July and early August. However, prolonged dry conditions could gradually reduce soil moisture, particularly in rain-fed areas. Irrigation may become necessary for crops, depending on local soil moisture conditions.

Temperatures are also likely to gradually rise with increasing sunshine and fewer rainy days.

Overall, Rajasthan is heading towards a relatively dry phase, and the development of the next significant Bay of Bengal system will be crucial in determining whether rainfall activity improves again towards the end of August.