Simultaneous Exit Of Southwest Monsoon And Entry Of Northeast Monsoon Likely: Rare Feat Indeed
The southwest monsoon has withdrawn from most parts of the country, including Northeast India. Only a small portion remains over parts of north interior Karnataka and the southern regions of Telangana, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha. There is already a visible change in the weather pattern, and some light rains over these leftover parts are actually the precursors to the northeast monsoon, not remnants of the southwest monsoon. The complete exit of the southwest monsoon is expected by tomorrow, 16th October 2025.
Most of the prerequisites for the arrival of the northeast monsoon are aligning for its official declaration. Easterly and southeasterly winds are sweeping across the central and southern parts of the Bay of Bengal. The easterly stream has already reached the coastline of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, bringing moderate showers. A low-pressure area is likely to form shortly over the Comorin and Lakshadweep regions. Conditions are favorable for continued rainfall activity over the southeast peninsula — a desirable condition for the formal announcement of the northeast monsoon.
The preconditions for the onset of the northeast monsoon include the cessation of the southwest monsoon, the prevalence of easterly winds up to a depth of 5,000 feet over coastal Tamil Nadu, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, and the central and southwest Bay of Bengal, along with fairly widespread rainfall over coastal Tamil Nadu, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, and adjoining areas. All these requirements are nearly fulfilled, and the arrival of the northeast monsoon is likely within the next 24–36 hours.
A simultaneous exit of the southwest monsoon and onset of the winter monsoon over the southern peninsula appears likely. This could mirror 2019, when both events occurred concurrently on 16th October. Not only may the transition happen together, but even the date may coincide — with the southwest monsoon vacating completely and the northeast monsoon ushering in by tomorrow.
