Northern hills are likely to come under the wrath of vigorous monsoon activity during the remaining days of July. State of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh will be more vulnerable, and severity of weather, in that order too. After the two days' activity on 23rd and 24th July, a small pause on 25th July and resume again to last till the rest of the month. The lower and the middle hills will have the bigger risk as compared to the higher reaches of both the mountainous states.
The western end of the monsoon trough has shifted north of its normal position above the level of 3,000 feet. The passage of a western disturbance across the mountains, as an upper air trough, will keep the monsoon trough in this position, at least for the next three days. Scattered heavy rains are likely over these two states today and tomorrow. Short and sweet breather on 25th July and the situation returns, albeit, under the influence of a different set of weather systems.
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A low-pressure area is likely to form over North Bay of Bengal on 24th July. This will pick up strength and move inland on 25th/26th July. A strong easterly monsoon stream of winds will sweep all along the Indo-Gangetic plains. The foothills of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh will come under the double whammy of easterly winds and the western disturbance. Interaction between the two will increase the weather activity over the hills between 27th and 31st July 2025. The western end of the monsoon trough will have tendency to shift along the foothills during fag end of the month. Lower and the middle hills of both the states will bear the risk of extended inclement weather conditions. Since the model accuracy drops after about four days, the forecast will need a review and the same will be shared, afresh.
