Weak Monsoon Over South Peninsula During This Week- Rain Deficit To Increase

South Peninsula has witnessed large intra-seasonal rainfall variability during this month. The early onset of monsoon over the country did not benefit the southern sub-divisions adequately. After the monsoon stall between 26th May and 15th June, South India was severed with scanty rains, incurring a regional deficiency of over 10% in the first half of June. Following some good rains, the region ‘broke even’ by 18th June. However, weak monsoon conditions have triggered a shortfall of seasonal rains, wherein most sub-divisions have incurred a deficiency of 30%–40% rainfall now. The week ahead is looking further grim, and the margins are going to rise.

Southwest monsoon will be active over the eastern, central, and northern parts of the country. Intense rains with decent spread are likely over West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, and Delhi in the next one week. Heavy to very heavy rains are likely over parts of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Vidarbha may also get consolatory showers on 24th & 25th June and dry up thereafter.

So, while the southwest monsoon will remain active to vigorous over the northern half of the country, the southern parts will have minimal monsoon rainfall. The sub-divisions facing scare of scanty rains will include Vidarbha, Marathwada, Telangana, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, North & South Interior Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu. While Tamil Nadu will consume its surplus during this period, the deficiency will grow further in all other pockets.

The monsoon systems forming over the Bay of Bengal have been tracking along the Indo-Gangetic plains. Accordingly, rainfall will remain confined to the northern half of the country. The southern half will face the brunt of poor spread of monsoon rainfall. The conditions will become critical for the rainfed zone covering Vidarbha, Marathwada, and Telangana. These pockets have incurred a rain deficit of 45% to 60% between 01st and 23rd June. The farmer is advised to cater for insufficient rainfall for the sowing operations, if any, during the next 10 days. The process may be delayed for the rain-dependent areas till further outlook.