Weak Rainfall Likely Over Maharashtra In August: Rain Deficiency May Grow Big

Key Takeaways:

• Madhya Maharashtra's rainfall surplus has dropped from over 35% to just 16% during August.
• Vidarbha and Marathwada have slipped into deficit, with rainfall shortfalls of 22% and 21%, respectively.
• Upcoming weather systems are unlikely to bring widespread or sufficient rainfall across Maharashtra.
• Rising rainfall deficiency may increase water stress for Kharif crops, particularly across Vidarbha and Marathwada.
• Forecast Validity: 20–31 AUGUST 2026

All the three landlocked sub-divisions of Maharashtra had recovered from the rain deficit in June and were placed comfortably by the end of July. While the shortfall over Vidarbha and Marathwada was reduced to single digits, north-south-oriented Madhya Maharashtra, on the lee side of the Western Ghats, had gone surplus by over 35% rainfall.

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The month of August has mostly remained a dampener, and the rains have been scattered and weak too. The surplus of Madhya Maharashtra is getting consumed and has now been reduced to a mere 16%. Vidarbha and Marathwada have breached the normal mark of +/-19% and crossed over to the deficit category, with a shortfall of 22% and 21% rainfall, respectively. The situation is unlikely to improve and may rather worsen further.

Earlier, in the month of July, the weather systems from the Bay of Bengal had travelled across the state and dropped widespread rains. The last two weather systems in the month of August have altered their course and tracked along the Indo-Gangetic plains, keeping the state at a safe distance from the core weather activity. At best, only the peripherals of Vidarbha and some contiguous parts of Marathwada with Madhya Pradesh received light to moderate rainfall. These showers fell short of the desired weather activity needed to keep pace with the normal rainfall around this time.

There is a low-pressure area over Northeast Madhya Pradesh and Southeast Uttar Pradesh. The system is not only at a safe distance from Vidarbha and Marathwada, but it is also weakening and likely to get diffused shortly. Another system, likely to come up over the Bay, is not showing any signs of keeping proximity with the state. The extended peripherals of the system may, at best, give some consolatory showers over a limited area of Vidarbha.

Locations like Bramhapuri, Gondia, Gadchiroli, Chandrapur, Nagpur, Wardha, Amraoti and Yeotmal may get some light rainfall. Scattered showers may also spill over Madhya Maharashtra, on the lee side of the Ghats, across Pune, Nashik, Sangli, Satara, Sholapur and Kolhapur regions. However, the intensity and spread will fall terribly short of the required standards.

With limited weather activity expected for the state of Maharashtra, the excess margin of Madhya Maharashtra will shrink further and may slip into the below-normal category. The sub-divisions of Vidarbha and Marathwada will have increased water stress for the Kharif crops.

Even the coastline of the Konkan region, including Mumbai, will not have adequate rainfall during the remaining days of August. The overall seasonal deficit of 5% rainfall for the entire state, as of now, is expected to grow bigger in the leftover days of this month. Also, the month of September is not promising anything big to start with. The rainfall crunch for the core monsoon rainfed zone may take a toll on Kharif crops across the state.

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