Northeast India has been seeing some intense rainfall activities which has led to floods in parts of Assam as well as Meghalaya. More effect has been seen over western parts of Assam adjoining Sikkim and Sub Himalayan West Bengal.
The flood situation is unlikely to improve in the next three days at least. In fact, we can expect the floods to persist over Assam, parts of Meghalaya and its adjoining areas for at least the next three days.
Improvement can be seen around June 24 and 25, as another system in Bay of Bengal is expected to develop in the Bay of Bengal which will alter the wind pattern. Thus, rains will reduce only then and significant relief is likely by June 27 or so.
The state of Rajasthan has been witnessing intense weather activities. Rains shifted from Gujarat to southern parts of Rajasthan as remnants of Biparjoy also moved. Western parts of the state thereafter saw some rainfall activities.
In fact, during the last 24 hours from 8:30 am on Sunday, Ajmer recorded 132 mm of rain, Bhilwara 42 mm, Bundi 35 mm, Chittorgarh 33 mm, and Udaipur 26 mm.
During the Monsoon period, these systems are not able to shift from west to east for a longer period. Therefore, this system which is over the northeastern parts of Rajasthan and adjoining northern parts is expected to stay and only a marginal shift is expected towards more of the Madhya Pradesh region by tomorrow.
For the next three days, we can expect heavy to very heavy rainfall over parts of northern Madhya Pradesh including Gwalior, Guna, Tikamgarh, Datia, Sheopur, and Ashoknagar. For Rajasthan, cities like Kota, Dholpur, Sawai Madhopur will be seeing heavy showers.
Southwest monsoon has literally struggled to establish itself over South Peninsula this season so far. In the first phase, the monsoon travels from south to north to cover the complete peninsula in about 10 days' time. ┬аBy 15th┬аJune, it reaches South Coastal Gujarat, the entire Maharashtra, half of Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand and the entire Odisha & West Bengal.
From its earlier date of 10th┬аJune, ┬аas per revised dates, the monsoon reaches Mumbai on 11th June. The western arm of the monsoon is stalled since 11thJune when it reached Ratnagiri and has not moved an inch thereafter. Even the eastern arm is stagnant for the last week.
Monsoon arrived over Kerala with a delay of one week. Further progress was weak and sluggish. Rainfall deficiency over most southern states has mounted to 70-80%. Further up, Maharashtra has witnessed a large deficit of 80-90%. Most parts of Konkan have observed extremely poor monsoon rains till now. The financial capital Mumbai is nearly starved in the first 3 weeks of June.
Mumbai receives about 526.3mm of average rainfall in June. More than halfway through the month, the city has measured only 17.1mm so far. Few showers have been recorded in the last 7 days with a maximum of a mere 6 mm in 24 hours.┬а One more week will not be any different and showers are going to be far and few.
Mumbai observed the most delayed monsoon on 27th┬аJune in the year 2009.┬а Coincidentally, this delay was attributed to the El Nino, phenomenon of warm Pacific Ocean waters during monsoon months.┬а 2nd┬аlongest delay since 2009 was in 2019 when the monsoon reached on 25th June.
In 2016 also, the monsoon made delayed arrival on 20th June. ┬аIn addition, the monsoon in Mumbai also got delayed in 2012, 2014 and 2015 due to El Nino like conditions. Monsoon knocked at Mumbai a little before time on 09th┬аJune 2018. ┬аMumbai has only received sporadic and fleeting showers so far. Though the criteria like onset over Kerala satisfying rainfall, clouds, OLR and speed and depth of westerly winds were fulfilled last week, typical monsoon rains have given amiss.┬а Monsoon arrival over Mumbai is never without the submerging showers disrupting normal life.
This year, to start with, the monsoon arrived late over Kerala and was later deranged by cyclone Biparjoy. ┬аIt is almost similar to 2019 when the monsoon landed on 25th June. This was one of the most delayed arrivals in the last 45 years. The monsoon was stalled by cyclone тАШVAYUтАЩ which was similar to тАШBIPARJOYтАЩ in track, timings and intensity. However, the storm had weakened over the sea and did not make any significant landfall over Gujarat.┬а Prior to that, another cyclone тАШNAUNAKтАЩ in 2014 over the Arabian Sea had corrupted the monsoon onset.
Cyclone Biparjoy has weakened to a depression. Remnant of the cyclone continues to give downpours over Rajasthan and is likely to extend reach up to North Madhya Pradesh for the next 72 hours. The weather system is likely to get filled up over the same region and make way for the advance of the monsoon. There is the likelihood of monsoon system forming over the Bay of Bengal during the early 4th┬аweek of June.
The first monsoon system of the season over the Bay of Bengal will push the monsoon deep inland after the 25th of June. This weather system will take the rains to parched areas of Maharashtra and the other central parts. This feature will also accentuate the monsoon surge along the West Coast, more so for the Konkan region. Mumbai can expect one of the most delayed monsoon coinciding with the earlier record date of 27th June. Heavy rains are likely for 2-3 days commencing 27th June and lasting till fag end of the month.
Since the time of the onset of the Southwest Monsoon over the city of Chennai, rains have been far and few. However, in the last 24 hours, Chennai's Meenambakkam observatory recorded a whopping 158 mm of rains. Nungambakkam observatory also witnessed heavy rains to the tune of 85 mm.
The suburbs of Chennai have also seen rains over 100 mm in some parts. With this, the district administrations have announced the closure of schools in various districts of Tamil Nadu today due to heavy rainfall. Apart from Chennai, schools in Ranipet, Kancheepuram, Tiruvallur, Chengalpet, and Vellore will also remain closed.
Moreover, as per reports, persistent heavy rainfall has caused waterlogging in low-lying areas such as Velachery, Guindy, Vepery, GST Road, and KK Nagar. Moreover, several flights scheduled to land at Chennai Airport were diverted to Bengaluru Airport during the early hours of Monday. In fact, many flights bound for international destinations have faced delays.
As per the weathermen, Chennai rains are expected to continue for the next couple of days and might remain heavy leading to more problems for residents in the city as well as its adjoining areas.
The onset of southwest monsoon 2023 was delayed by one week over Kerala. In the subsequent two to three days monsoon covered Antar North East India as well as read up to south coconut over West Coast. Since then, monsoon became stagnant. One of the reasons can be the formation of a cyclone over the Arabian Sea which restricted the law of south-westerly winds towards south Peninsula.
Cyclone Biparjoy has made landfall over the Kutch region of Gujarat and is now seen as a depression over Central parts of Rajasthan. The impact of the cyclone has faded away. Westernly and South West Delhi flow of winds from the Arabian Sea has intensified leading to increase rain activities over South Peninsula. There will be a significant increase in rain over Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, and parts of South Telangana.
Almost all the Meteorological divisions of South India are rain deficient to large rain deficient except Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Now the situation will improve gradually with the active conditions of monsoon.
More than half of June has passed but the monsoon is way behind schedule. Usually by June 15 monsoon covers the entire south Peninsula, parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, most parts of Odisha, Maharashtra as well as Chhattisgarh, and reaches Southern parts of Gujarat. As of June 18, the northern limit of the monsoon has covered south Konkan and Goa, half of Karnataka, parts of Rayalaseema, North East India, Sikkim, Sub-Himalaya in West Bengal, and northeast Bihar.
Conditions are now becoming favourable for the advancement of monsoon over East India. The depression is over the central parts of Rajasthan will move gradually over Central parts of Uttar Pradesh as a low-pressure area.
This low pressure will pull the monsoon currents from the Bay of Bengal. Rain will intensify over west Bengal parts of Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha in the next 48 hours. Increased rain will result in the onset of monsoon over these States. Heatwaves to severe heatwave conditions prevailing over Eastern parts of the country will subside soon.
As of June 18, most parts of East India are predominantly rainy deficient. These upcoming rains oval certainly improve the rain statistics. And help farmers to commence the sowing of crops.
The onset of monsoon over Kerala was delayed by one week. It is 17 June and the monsoon has not progressed as per its normal dates. It is behind the schedule over West Coast, South Peninsula, and East India as well as over the Central part of the country. Conditions are becoming favourable for the further progress of the monsoon over the South Peninsula and East India.
The cyclonic storm Biparjoy has weakened and moved over Rajasthan. Southwesterly winds will strengthen over the southeast Arabian Sea leading to active monsoon conditions over South Peninsula. This monsoon surge will help in the further progression of the monsoon over the South Peninsula.
The depression over central parts of Rajasthan will move gradually over central and East Uttar Pradesh as a low-pressure area. This low-pressure area will pull the monsoon currents from the Bay of Bengal. Rain activities may increase gradually over Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal between June 18 and 21.
Southwest monsoon may progress over these states during that period. There are chances of the monsoon reaching east Uttar Pradesh by June 23rd.
Although rain activities will intensify over Madhya Pradesh in the coming week, Central India will have to wait for some more time for the monsoon to make its onset there.
Very severe cyclone Biparjoy battered many parts of Kutch during the last two days. It has done massive damage to the environment and property. It uprooted many trees, damaged houses, flooded low-light areas, and damaged power and communication lines.
Another very important feature associated with this cyclone is heavy to very heavy rain going on over many parts of Gujarat. Heavy rain continues over the Kutch region of Gujarat. Okha recorded 228 mm, Bhuj 125, Kandla 124, Dwarika 56, Rajkot 87, Deesa 79, Naliya 61 & Ahmedabad received 42 mm of rain in the last 24 hours. Okha clocked a total of 472 mm in the last 4 days, it is 92% of annual rain, which is 512 mm. More rain is possible during the next 24 hours. In fact, many stations in the Kutch region of Gujarat have recorded more than 50% of annual rainfall in the last three to four days.
The cyclone has weakened into a deep depression and has moved over Southwest Rajasthan. Its impact will be felt over the Northern districts of Gujarat for another 24 hours. After that, the weather of Gujarat may go dry. Rain activities may resume once again over the Gujarat region by June 26 or 27. We can expect the onset of monsoon over Southern parts of Gujarat during that time.
