Meteorological conditions are hotting up over Bay of Bengal (BoB ) for cyclogenesis. Tropical storm over BoB for the 3rd consecutive year in December is likely to come up within next 48 hr. Last year, cyclone Jawad (02-06 Dec) and storm Burevi( 30Nov-05Dec) in 2020 had developed over BoB around same time. Both remained confined to the initial grade as 'cyclonic storm' and did not intensify further. Rather, both weakened before breaching the Indian coastline of South India.
Well marked low pressure area over Southeast BoB has moved west-northwest and is centred around 280km northwest of Car Nicobar. The satellite images indicate expansion of convective clusters and consolidation of low level cyclonic circulation. The weather system is in the midst of favourable environmental conditions. Vertical wind shear is low to moderate, ocean surface is quite warm (29-30Deg), wind field of 25knots and good outflow, both poleward and equatorward. As manifested in the satellite imageries, the system appears to have intensified in to a depression.
Potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24hr remains medium and in the subsequent 24 hr becomes high.
Depression is likely to become a cyclonic storm over Southwest BoB, off Tamil Nadu coast. It may even become severe cyclonic storm(SCS) over the open and deep ocean surface. Thereafter, its movement will be sluggish. Implication of entrainment and friction due to proximity of land will have to be observed closely. Relatively cooler sea surface impedes intensification and turns ruinous on few occasions, as observed in the past. However, the 'caution guard' for tropical storms is never dropped till such time it becomes inconsequential.
Entire coastline of Tamil Nadu from Chennai to Tuticorin, Puducherry & Karaikal and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh need to go on alert for hazardous weather conditions between 07th and 10th December 2022, with an adverse peak on 08th Dec. Deadly combination of strong gale speed winds accompanied with torrential rains and lightning storms may turn injurious for these parts.
