Skymet weather

Cyclone Bulbul to become severe cyclone tonight, to intensify into very severe cyclone in next 24 hrs

November 7, 2019 5:56 PM |

Cyclone Bulbul

Updated on November 7, 2019 4:30 PM: Cyclone Bulbul to become severe cyclone tonight, to intensify into very severe cyclone in next 24 hrs

Cyclone Bulbul is all set to become more powerful and strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm over east-central Bay of Bengal tonight. In fact, it is likely to intensify further into very severe cyclonic storm during the next 24 hours.

According to Skymet Weather, Bulbul is travelling in deep open waters in favourable weather conditions of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. The system is presently centered near 15°N and Longitude 90°E, about 640 km south-southeast of Paradip, Odisha, 740 km south-southeast of Sagar Islands, West Bengal and 780 km south-southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh.

Track of Cyclone-Bulbul

As per weathermen, the system would continue to travel in sea in north-northwest direction for the next three days, thereafter re-curving. However, there is still no consensus over landfall of Cyclone Bulbul. As of now, Bulbul is expected to make landfall around November 10 between Chandbali and Sagar Island.

weather model output

Updated on November 6, 2019 5:30 PM: Deep depression forms in Bay of Bengal, potential Cyclone Bulbul to form today

The wait to seventh cyclone of the year has just got little longer. The likely cyclonic storm Bulbul brewing in Bay of Bengal had been rapidly intensifying ever since its inception. Looking at it, the depression was expected to form into tropical storm Bulbul by Wednesday morning. However, the process of strengthening got delayed and we saw depression over Bay of Bengal inducing a Deep Depression on early Wednesday morning.

It is presently marked over east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal, centered near Latitude 13.4°N and Longitude 89.3°E, about 390 km west-northwest of Maya Bandar, 810 km south-southeast of Paradip, 920 km south-southeast of Sagar Islands and 960 km south-southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh.

Weather models are now predicting the depression to intensify into Cyclone Bulbul by Wednesday evening or early night. According to weathermen, although all features are in place but despite this the reason behind its slow intensification can be attributed to indifferent wind shear surrounding the system. The eastern periphery is favourable with low vertical wind shear to the tune of 15-20 knots. However, western periphery of likely cyclonic storm is encountering moderate to high wind shear of 20-25 knots. But gradually, conditions would become favorable for the storm and subsequently into a very severe cyclone as well.

Talking about its direction, there is large uncertainty in the track of the system until its takes a form a cyclonic storm. Two days back, weather models were suggesting west-northwest movement of the system that would then cross the coast between Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. Thereafter, system showed northwards trend and target North Odisha and West Bengal coast. Well, as of now, the likely storm Bulbul is most likely to make landfall somewhere between Chandbali, Odisha and Sagar Island, West Bengal, in close proximity to Bangladesh coast around November 10.

Track of Cyclone-Bulbul

Rainfall alert

November 6: With system far off in open waters, we can only expect light rains over coastal parts of Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha.

November 7: By this time, system would have neared the coast, triggering strong surface winds to the tune of 50-60 kmph gusting up to 70 kmph. Also, due to the northward movement of likely storm Bulbul, rain belt would also extend to entire Odisha coast and adjoining West Bengal.

November 8: Till now, expected Cyclone Bulbul would have come quite close to the coast. As a result, surface winds would intensify to 70-80 kmph gusting up to 90 kmph. Rains would intensify and moderate to heavy rains are likely to lash coastal parts of North Odisha and West Bengal.

November 9 & 10: Bulbul is likely to re-curve along the Indian coast line and thus, the system would slowdown. Thus, heavy to very heavy rains are likely to lash coastal parts of Odisha and West Bengal on November 9. Being a slow moving system, rains would also persist on November 10 as well. Also, wind speed would also increase significantly and would be of damage potential to the tune of 80-90 kmph gusting up to 100 kmph.

Chandbali, Puri, Gopalpur, Balasore, Diamond Harbour, Digha and Canning would have the maximum bearing including some extremely heavy rains. In fact, areas little away from the coast like Baripada, Midnapore, Kolkata, Bhubaneswar might also see heavy rains.

Meanwhile, sea conditions would remain rough to very rough all along the East Coast. Fishermen along Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast are advised not to venture deep inside the water, while complete suspension of fishermen activities are advised along and off Odisha and West Bengal coast from November 8-10.

Image Credit: NDTV

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