Mumbai has rained non stop for over 48 hours and the splash continues. In the 1st six days of the month, Mumbai has scored 4 century rainfall , on 01st, 02nd, 05th and 06th July. It narrowly missed double hundred today, and Santa Cruz observatory measured 194 mm rainfall in the past 24hr, from 8.30 am yesterday to 8.30am today. The base station has added another 28mm of rainfall between 8.30am and 11.30am. The capital city has achieved a total of 662mm rainfall so far, and possibly reach/exceed the monthly average of 840.7mm in the next 48hr.
Low pressure area is now marked over central Gujarat in the close proximity of Konkan and North Madhya Maharashtra. The system is fed with moist winds from the Arabian Sea and is expected to gain more strength as it rolls over to western parts of Saurashtra & Kutch and Northeast Arabian Sea. Also, there is a cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal, extending up to mid tropospheric levels. This feature will persist and move slowly across coastal Odisha and Chhattisgarh over the next 2 days. An east-west trough joining these 2 systems is cutting across Maharashtra and South Gujarat, remaining contiguous to Konkan region. Monsoon westerlies have strengthened over the Arabian Sea and striking ‘head on’ the Konkan coast.
Under the influence of streaming westerlies, Mumbai is heading for incessant rains over the next 3 days, with a peak on 07thJuly. Rainfall in excess of 100mm is likely on daily basis. This hat trick of 3 figure downpour on successive days will take the monthly total to beyond 1000mm. Looks like, Mumbai is heading for rainiest July with 4 digit monthly rainfall for 5th year in a row. July 2020 holds an all time high record with a massive total of 1502.6mm.
Continuous downpour has saturated the roads, lanes and streets. Astronomical tide with a wave height of 4mtr at 5pm tomorrow(07 July) and 6.30am the next day(08July) will further restrict flow of water in to the sea. Non stop rains will be embedded with blinding spells of heavy to very heavy downpour. This is likely to disrupt the rail and road traffic and also impact the air operations. Heavy rains may ease out on the subsequent 2 days, on 10thand 11thJuly. However, the intense activity is expected to revive again from 12thJuly onward and may even last for longer duration.