Prospects Of Southwest Monsoon 2025 Uplift Expectations

Skymet is the leading private weather forecasting company predicting monsoon performance since 2012. Skymet released its comprehensive seasonal forecast last week, predicting a normal monsoon in the upcoming season at 103% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with an error margin of +/- 5%. Close on its heels, the National Weather Agency predicted the upcoming season to remain above normal, quantitatively expecting the seasonal rainfall at 105% of LPA, with a similar error margin. These are the only two major agencies making monsoon forecasts in India. Other estimates, if any, may not be as elaborate and conclusive. But what do we read from these two forecasts, painting a monsoon canvas for the season 2025?

Skymet has shared details of seasonal and monthly prospects. Also, the regional distribution in different monsoon months over the four homogenous regions of the country has been spelled out, leaving little room for ambiguity. Course correction in case of any major deviation, which is unlikely, is carried out halfway through the season. The weather forecast by the national agency has given a broad seasonal outlook for the respective regions of the country. If watched closely, the regional distribution is aligned very closely and the margin of error, if any, is minimal. 

The two forecasts appear to be replicas of each other. The regional rainfall distribution is more or less a mirror image and matches quite intimately. Both forecasts mention a grey area of rainfall in the Northeast Region and Northern Mountains. Decent and above-normal rainfall has been convincingly spelled out for the core monsoon rain-fed zone of central parts. Nearly 50% of the agricultural area of the country is rain dependent and such synchronous forecasts are nothing short of delightful, in a broader sense.

Skymet’s estimate of 103% of LPA is on the highest end of normal rainfall, wherein the normal range is from 96% to 104% of LPA. The other forecast of 105% lies on the lowest end of above-normal rainfall, wherein the above-normal ranges from 105% to 110% of LPA. The gap of a mere 2% between the two forecasts is reasonably genuine and quite understandable. The similarity between the two forecasts can not be better than this and needs to be perceived rationally.

Monsoon rainfall is the single most important factor for the agriculture sector. The economists, however, caution that only knowing the amount of monsoon rains is not sufficient to ascertain its impact on agriculture. As per the chief economists at rating agency Crisil, the forecast of above-normal rainfall is the first positive signal for the upcoming agriculture season. But more than the quantum of rainfall, what is more important is how well the rainfall is distributed. Absolutely true. The supply chain management gets sustained with reasonably well-distributed rainfall. Adequate rains, whenever and wherever required, are more important than the jugglery of normal or above-normal.