Severe Heat Wave Likely Over Rajasthan-Gujarat

Rajasthan and Gujarat are likely to have another round of heat wave conditions. Earlier, both these states were under siege of extreme heat between 06th and 08th April 2025. Thereafter, heat wave conditions largely abated from most parts of the country, including West Rajasthan and Saurashtra & Kutch. The upcoming spell could be equally or possibly more severe than the previous episode.

Heat wave conditions are announced when the temperature exceeds 40°C and the departure from normal is 4.5°C or more. Severe heat is considered when the departure from the normal is more than 6.4°C. Also, a severe heat wave is declared when the mercury breaches the 45°C mark. Such conditions were observed in pockets of border areas of Rajasthan and Saurashtra & Kutch in Gujarat.

There is a western disturbance likely to arrive over hills on 16th April and an induced cyclonic circulation will follow over the plains of North India. The heat factor builds up on the arrival of such systems because of the change in the wind pattern. Generally, the excess energy gets balanced out by the transfer of heat through the dust storms or thunderstorms. However, extreme South Rajasthan, bordering Gujarat and the state of Gujarat have minimal incidences of convective activity. The heat mitigation over these parts gets triggered by a change of winds, warm and moist, from the Arabian Sea.

The conditions are building up for extreme heat over parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat during this week. Scorching temperatures are likely between 16th and 18th April. Many parts of Rajasthan and the arid region of Gujarat become susceptible to blistering heat. Temperatures in excess of 45°C are expected over border posts of Rajasthan and interiors of Kutch. The places at risk will include Barmer, Jaisalmer, Phalodi, Bikaner, Rajkot, Kandla and Surendranagar. The temperatures in excess of 43°C are quite likely over Churu, Pali, Pilani, Chittorgarh, Jodhpur, Jaipur, Sikar, Kota and Ganganagar. In Gujarat, the state capital Gandhinagar, twin city Ahmedabad, Deesa, Patan, Amreli, Junagarh will also breach the 43° mark during this period. These harsh conditions will be further worsened by sweltering heat building up across the border and getting advected with the favorable wind pattern. The entire region will have to reel under soaring temperatures stretching for nearly one week.