Skymet, India’s leading weather forecasting and agriculture risk solutions company has released its monsoon forecast for 2022. Skymet expects the upcoming monsoon to be ‘normal’ to the tune of 98% (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of the long period average (LPA) for the 4-month period from June to September. This would make it 4th consecutive year of normal or above-normal monsoon.
Now, Skymet has released its monsoon onset date for 2022. Skymet expects the onset to be earlier than the normal date. Based on the data from 1961 to 2019, the normal date of onset over the Indian mainland is 01 June.
The onset of the Southwest Monsoon over Kerala is chiefly controlled by the oceanic conditions, both in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Recent cyclone Asani enabled the monsoon stream to lock in over the Bay of Bengal, earlier than normal. Also, the remnant of this storm, as a depression over Peninsular India, has been instrumental in initiating the cross-equatorial flow. The combined influence has wiped away the anticyclone over the central parts of the Arabian Sea, an essential condition for ingress of monsoon surge. This will also be assisted by the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) entering the Indian Ocean, albeit with low amplitude. Pre-Monsoon showers will be extensive and powerful over Kerala.
Skymet predicts that this year, the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is likely to be on 26 May 2022 with a model error of +/- 3 days.
Monsoon 2022 Forecast for India
About Skymet Weather
Skymet Weather is India's largest weather monitoring and agri-risk solutions company. The only private weather forecasting agency in India, Skymet Weather, was established in 2003 and has been known for providing reliable and accessible weather forecasts since then. Skymet runs its own numeric weather prediction models and provides an array of weather-based services through data and information tools. It uses innovation to provide weather forecast to power companies, media conglomerates, farmer innovation services, agricultural input producers, and logistics operators. It has pioneered uses for long-range Monsoon weather forecasts, satellite remote sensing technologies, and unmanned aerial vehicles in India.