Skymet Weather Forecasts Normal Monsoon For India in 2025

Skymet, India’s leading weather Forecasting and agriculture risk solution company has released its Monsoon Forecast for 2025. Skymet expects the upcoming monsoon to be ‘normal’ to the tune of 103% ( with an error margin of +/- 5% ) of the long period average (LPA) of 868.6mm for the four month long period of June to September. The spread of Normal being 96-104% of LPA. In its earlier estimates, Skymet has been promoting normal Monsoon and now retains the same.

Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet states, “La Nina this season was weak and brief, too. The vital signs of La Nina have started fading now. The occurrence of El Nino which normally corrupts the Monsoon is ruled out. ENSO-neutral is likely to be the most dominant category during the Indian Summer Monsoon. The remnants of La Nina and ENSO-neutral together, will shield the monsoon from any egregious outcome. Preliminary Forecast of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will work in tandem with ENSO for better Monsoon prospects. Historically, ENSO-neutral coupled with positive IOD tended to produce a worthy Monsoon. The second half of the season is expected to be better than the primal Phase”.

Beside ENSO, There are other factors influencing Monsoon. IOD is neutral now and has the propensity to effectively turn positive before the start of Monsoon. ENSO and IOD will be synchronous and are likely to steer Monsoon in the safe margins. The Monsoon may have a quiet start on account of quick transition from La Nina to ENSO-neutral and gain enough pace half way through the season.

In terms of geographical prospects, Skymet expects sufficiently good rains over Western and South India. Core Monsoon rainfed zone of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will receive adequate rainfall. Excess rainfall is likely all along the Western Ghats, more so, over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Goa. Northeast region and hilly states of North India are likely to observe less than normal rainfall, during the season.

According to Skymet, monsoon probabilities for JJAS are :

● 30% chance of Above Normal ( Seasonal rainfall that is between 105% to 110% of LPA)

● 40% chance of Normal ( Seasonal rainfall that is between 96% to 104% of LPA)

● 15% chance of Below Normal ( Seasonal rainfall that is between 90% to 95% of LPA)

● 5% chance of Drought ( Seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)

On a monthly scale, the precipitation foreshadow is as follow :

June - 96% of LPA (LPA for June = 165.3mm)

● 50% chance of normal

● 20% chance of above normal

● 30% chance of below normal

July - 102% of LPA (LPA for July = 280.5mm)

● 60% chance of normal

● 20% chance of above normal

● 20% chance of below normal

August - 108% of LPA (LPA for August = 254.9mm)

● 40% chance of normal

● 40% chance of above normal

● 20% chance of below normal

September - 104% of LPA (LPA for September = 167.9mm)

● 60% chance of normal

● 20% chance of above normal

● 20% chance of below normal

About Skymet Weather

Skymet Weather is India’s largest weather monitoring and agri-risk solutions company. The only private weather Forecasting agency in India, Skymet Weather, was established in 2003 and has been known for providing reliable and accessible weather Forecasts since then. Skymet runs its own numerical weather models and provides an array of weather-based services through data and information tools. It uses innovation to provide weather Forecasts to power companies, media conglomerates, farmer innovation services, agriculture input producers, and logistic operators. It has pioneered uses for long-range Monsoon weather Forecasts, satellite technologies, and unmanned aerial vehicles in India.

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