Skymet predicted that Monsoon 2020 will arrive on 28th May with a margin of +/- 2 days. Despite the delay caused by cyclone Amphan, Monsoon entered Kerala today, 2 days before the due date of 01st June. Prior to its arrival the pre-monsoon showers also were hefty over most parts of the state.
A set of environmental conditions needs to be fulfilled as a criterion for the arrival of Monsoon. All the parameters have satisfied the required threshold, essentially the OLR (Outgoing Long Wave Radiation) and rainfall. OLR values are received from the INSAT and NOAA as well and rainfall amounts are verified from the available AWS (Automatic Weather Station).
A low-pressure area is likely to form shortly over the Southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep region. This will intensify to a Depression/ Deep Depression in the subsequent 48 hours. Also, this system will move northward and keep coming closer to the coast incrementally. It is expected to reach abeam Goa on 01st June, Mumbai on 02nd June, and enter the Gulf of Cambay (Between South Gujarat and Saurashtra) around 03rd June. Heavy rainfall is expected at over Mumbai and Suburbs between 02-04 June, peaking on 3rd June.
Very strong winds are also likely along Konkan & Goa coast during this period. Heavy rainfall is likely over South Gujarat and eastern parts of Saurashtra. Localized flooding with very heavy rains is likely over Vapi, Valsad, Navsari, Surat, Ankleshwar, Baruch, Bhavnagar, Mahua, Veraval, Anand, Godhra, Kheda, Vadodara, Gandhinagar, and Ahmedabad. Scattered rains, heavy at places likely over Mehsana, Palanpur, Patan, and Banaskantha. This rainy spell is going to mitigate and finally abate the heatwave conditions over the state.