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Skymet forecasts below normal Southwest Monsoon in 2019 at 93 percent of LPA

April 3, 2019 1:50 PM |

According to Skymet Weather, Monsoon 2019 is likely to be ‘below normal’ to the tune of 93% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September.

According to Skymet, Monsoon probabilities for JJAS are:

• 0% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
• 0% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA)
• 30% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)
• 55% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)
• 15% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)

Monsoon 2019 Forecast

On a monthly scale, the precipitation foreshadow is as follows:

June – 77% of LPA (LPA for June = 164 mm)

• 15% chance of normal
• 10% chance of above normal
• 75% chance of below normal

July – 91% of LPA (LPA for July= 289 mm)

• 35% chance of normal
• 10% chance of above normal
• 55% chance of below normal

August – 102% of LPA (LPA for August = 261 mm)

• 55% chance of normal
• 15% chance of above normal
• 30% chance of below normal

September – 99% of LPA (LPA for September = 173 mm)

• 55% chance of normal
• 15% chance of above normal
• 30% chance of below normal

To download Skymet Weather's Monsoon Forecast report, click here
To download Monsoon 2019 Forecast PPT, click here


For accurate weather forecast and updates, download Skymet Weather (Android App | iOS App) App.

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