Weather Forecast October 01: Heavy Rain Likely Over Northeast and South India, Northwest to Remain Dry
Representational Image: AI-Skymet
Key Takeaways:
- Northeast India may witness fairly widespread to widespread rain and thunderstorms, with isolated heavy spells.
- Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu may receive light to moderate rain with isolated heavy spells during the next 24 hours.
- Tamil Nadu and Rayalaseema may experience thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds reaching 40-50 kmph.
- Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, west Uttar Pradesh and west Rajasthan are expected to remain mainly dry.
- Forecast Validity: Next 24 hours.
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The Weather Systems Over The Country
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The southwest monsoon withdrawal line continues to pass through 32.5°N/72.5°E, Gurdaspur, Chandigarh, Muzaffarnagar, Aligarh, Dholpur, Udaipur, Deesa, Naliya and 23.0°N/67.8°E.
The depression over coastal Myanmar and the adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal and southeast Bangladesh moved north-northwestwards and weakened into a well-marked low-pressure area at 5:30 AM IST on September 30.
The well-marked low now lies over north Myanmar and adjoining southeast Bangladesh, Mizoram and the northeast Bay of Bengal. It is likely to move towards Mizoram, Tripura and adjoining southeast Bangladesh and weaken gradually into a low-pressure area during the next 24 hours.
A Western Disturbance persists as a cyclonic circulation over north Haryana and adjoining areas between 3.1 and 4.5 km above mean sea level. Its associated middle- and upper-tropospheric trough runs near 72°E, north of 25°N.
An upper-air cyclonic circulation lies over southeast Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Bihar at about 3.1 km above mean sea level.
An upper-air cyclonic circulation persists over northeast Assam and adjoining areas, extending up to 1.5 km above mean sea level.
A cyclonic circulation lies over north coastal Tamil Nadu up to 1.5 km above mean sea level. A north-south trough extends from south interior Karnataka to the Gulf of Mannar across Tamil Nadu at about 0.9 km above mean sea level.
Weather Activities During The Last 24 Hours
During the 24-hour period from 8:30 AM IST on September 29 to 8:30 AM IST on September 30, rain or thundershowers occurred at most places over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Rain occurred at a few places over east Rajasthan, Assam and Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, north and south interior Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan and Goa and Lakshadweep.
Isolated rain occurred over east Rajasthan and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
The lowest minimum temperature over the plains was 16.6°C at Indore in Madhya Pradesh.
Maximum temperatures were markedly above normal at isolated places over Assam and Meghalaya, Himachal Pradesh and coastal Andhra Pradesh. Appreciably above-normal temperatures prevailed over parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Rayalaseema, West Bengal, Kerala, Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and north interior Karnataka.
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The highest maximum-temperature sentence is incomplete in the current IMD PDF; no national maximum has therefore been quoted.
Forecast
During the next 24 hours, fairly widespread to widespread rain and thunderstorms are likely over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura. Light to moderate rain with isolated heavy spells may occur over these states and over Assam and Meghalaya as the weakening low approaches the region.
Isolated to scattered rain is likely over Arunachal Pradesh. Thunderstorms and lightning may affect Assam, Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Rainfall will remain active over southern India. Light to moderate rain with isolated heavy spells may occur over north and south interior Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.
Fairly widespread rain is expected over south interior Karnataka. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely over coastal Karnataka, north interior Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep.
Thunderstorms accompanied by gusts of 40-50 kmph may affect Tamil Nadu and Rayalaseema. Gusts of 30-40 kmph are possible over coastal Andhra Pradesh and interior Karnataka. Strong surface winds may affect Andhra Pradesh.
Isolated rain or thunderstorms may occur over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal, Gujarat, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada. Lightning is possible over Madhya Pradesh and Marathwada.
Mainly dry weather is expected over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, west Uttar Pradesh, west Rajasthan and most of the western Himalayan region.
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