Weather Forecast September 22: Monsoon Withdrawal Advances, Deep Depression Likely Over Bay of Bengal
Representational Image: AI-Skymet
Key Takeaways:
- The southwest monsoon is likely to withdraw further from Rajasthan and parts of Punjab, Saurashtra and Kutch during the next two to three days.
- The well-marked Bay of Bengal low may intensify into a depression within 24 hours and a deep depression thereafter.
- The system is expected to approach the North Andhra Pradesh–South Odisha coasts around the morning of September 23.
- Rainfall will remain active across parts of southern, central and eastern India, while Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and most of West Rajasthan remain mainly dry.
- Forecast Validity: Next 24 hours.
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The Weather Systems Over The Country
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The southwest monsoon withdrawal line continues to pass through 27°N/68°E, Ramgarh, Mohangarh, Phalodi, Khajuwala and 29.5°N/71.5°E.
Conditions remain favourable for further withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from additional parts of Rajasthan and parts of Punjab, Saurashtra and Kutch during the next two to three days.
The low-pressure area over the east-central Bay of Bengal has moved west-northwestwards and intensified into a well-marked low-pressure area over the east-central and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal. Its associated cyclonic circulation extends up to 7.6 km above mean sea level.
The system is likely to intensify into a depression over the west-central Bay of Bengal during the next 24 hours and into a deep depression over the west-central and adjoining northwest Bay during the subsequent 24 hours.
Continuing west-northwestwards, the system is expected to approach the North Andhra Pradesh–South Odisha coasts around the morning of September 23.
A north–south trough extends from the circulation associated with the well-marked low-pressure area across the north Bay of Bengal up to 3.1 km above mean sea level.
An east–west trough extends from the Bay circulation to North Kerala across the central Bay of Bengal, South Andhra Pradesh and South Interior Karnataka. It extends up to 5.8 km above mean sea level and tilts southwards with height.
Upper-air cyclonic circulations persist over Southwest Madhya Pradesh, the east-central and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea, and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh with the adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal.
A trough extends from South Himachal Pradesh to the Arabian Sea circulation across Haryana, Rajasthan and Gujarat at about 5.8 km above mean sea level.
Weather Activities During The Last 24 Hours
During the last 24 hours, Rain or thundershowers occurred at many places over Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Marathwada, Gujarat, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep, Bihar, Jharkhand, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Telangana and Interior Karnataka.
Light isolated rain occurred over Southwest Rajasthan, Marathwada, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Heavy rainfall occurred at isolated places over Tamil Nadu. Significant rainfall amounts included:
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- Salem: 7 cm
- Minicoy: 5 cm
- Gopalpur: 3 cm
- Ahmedabad: 3 cm
The highest maximum temperature reported on September 20 was 40.3°C at Jaisalmer in Rajasthan. The lowest minimum temperature over the plains was 16.0°C at Haflong in Assam.
Maximum temperatures were markedly above normal at isolated places over Jammu and Kashmir and North Interior Karnataka. Appreciably above-normal temperatures prevailed over parts of northeastern India, Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Telangana, Karnataka and Kerala.
Forecast
During the next 24 hours, light to moderate rain with isolated heavy spells is likely over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Thunderstorms may be accompanied by lightning and gusty winds of 40–50 kmph.
Light to moderate rain with isolated heavy spells may occur over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Coastal Karnataka, North and South Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
Fairly widespread rainfall is expected over Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep. Scattered rain and thunderstorms may affect Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema.
Strong surface winds are likely over Andhra Pradesh. Thunderstorm wind gusts may reach 40–50 kmph over Telangana, Rayalaseema, Coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
Light to moderate rain with isolated heavy spells may occur over Chhattisgarh. Fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha, while isolated to scattered rain and thunderstorms may affect East and West Madhya Pradesh.
Fairly widespread rain will continue over Gangetic West Bengal. Scattered rain and thunderstorms are likely over Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim. Gusty winds of 40–50 kmph may affect Odisha and Jharkhand.
Rainfall activity will remain comparatively subdued over northeastern India, although isolated thunderstorms may occur over Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Fairly widespread rain is likely over Konkan and Goa. Isolated to scattered rain or thunderstorms may occur over Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Gujarat Region, Saurashtra and Kutch.
Mainly dry weather is expected over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and most of West Rajasthan. Isolated rain may occur over Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh and East Rajasthan.
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