Western Disturbances Losing Strength, Limited Impact Expected Over Plains
Key Takeaways:
- January saw strong Western Disturbances bringing heavy snowfall and rain to the Western Himalayas.
- February activity has weakened, with only light precipitation observed so far.
- Minimal rain chances over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh for 8–10 days.
- The second half of winter is likely to remain subdued with limited snowfall prospects.
January witnessed a phase of intense Western Disturbances over the Western Himalayan region, bringing widespread and significant weather activity. The first major system, which arrived around January 23, painted the entire Western Himalayas white with heavy snowfall, transforming the region into a true winter landscape.
Soon after, another Western Disturbance approached on January 27, delivering moderate to heavy rain and snowfall across most parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and adjoining areas. These back-to-back systems marked the peak phase of winter activity in the region.
However, since then, the intensity of Western Disturbances has reduced considerably. During the first four days of February, only light to moderate rain and snowfall were observed over parts of Jammu & Kashmir, higher reaches of Himachal Pradesh, and Ladakh, indicating a clear weakening trend.
A fresh Western Disturbance is approaching on February 9, but its impact is expected to remain largely confined to Jammu & Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, and parts of Himachal Pradesh. Uttarakhand is likely to remain mostly unaffected, except for isolated light rainfall over higher reaches.
Following this system, weather conditions are expected to turn dry from February 11 or 12. The next Western Disturbance, likely around February 16, is also expected to be weak in nature, unlikely to produce any significant rain or snowfall over the hills.
A key consequence of weaker Western Disturbances is their inability to induce cyclonic circulation over the northern plains. As a result, the chances of rainfall over Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Delhi remain very low for the next 8–10 days, indicating a prolonged dry spell across the plains.
Rainfall and Snowfall Status as of February 8
- Ladakh: Surplus by 19%
- Himachal Pradesh: Surplus by 47%
- Jammu & Kashmir: Deficient by 33%
- Uttarakhand: Deficient by 21%
Despite a few intense snowfall spells, the overall picture suggests the Western Himalayas have not received their fair share of winter precipitation. The continued weakening trend of Western Disturbances points toward a subdued second half of the season, with limited prospects for significant rain and snowfall ahead.
