Low Pressure Area Likely Over Andaman Sea: Moderate-Heavy rains Over South Peninsula

Key Takeaways:

• A cyclonic circulation over the South Andaman Sea is likely to develop into a low-pressure area and move towards the Southwest Bay of Bengal.
• Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected across Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh between October 14 and 19.
• The weather system may facilitate the onset of the Northeast Monsoon between October 15 and 20, following the withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon.
• Isolated flooding rains, severe lightning and strong gusty winds are possible, particularly across coastal and interior parts of South India.
• Forecast Validity: October 14–20, 2026

A low-level cyclonic circulation is marked over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining regions. This system is likely to become marked, and the circulation will extend to the mid and higher levels soon. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region. As the weather system moves across the South-Central Bay of Bengal, it may pick up more strength. By mid-week, the low pressure is expected to reach the Southwest Bay of Bengal, remaining in the vicinity of Coastal Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka. A prolonged spell of rain and thundershowers is likely over the South Peninsula between October 14 and 19, 2026. Scattered heavy rainfall will occur during this period across large pockets of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka.

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The low pressure may become instrumental in the onset of the Northeast Monsoon over the South Peninsula. However, the onset is subject to the withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from the country. At best, there could be a simultaneous exit of the Southwest Monsoon and a sweep of the Northeast Monsoon over Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. All this activity is likely to be completed between October 15 and 20, 2026.

The Bay of Bengal systems during the post-monsoon season do have the potential to become tropical storms, subject to the area of formation and favourable environmental conditions. The upcoming low-pressure area will stay low in latitude and therefore may not become a storm. As it moves across the southern parts of the Bay of Bengal in proximity to the equatorial region, the active weather belt will have a northward extension. The intense weather activity will start pounding the coastline of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh from October 14 onwards. Fairly widespread rain and thundershowers are likely all along the coastal stretch on October 14 and 15.

The weather system will move over the interiors of the South Peninsula on October 16. The spread and intensity of the weather will increase, more visibly, over deep inland Tamil Nadu, South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and Coastal Karnataka between October 16 and 19. The remnant effect will continue thereafter as well, albeit with marginal intensity. The South Peninsula has to watch out for isolated flooding rains, accompanied by severe lightning storms and strong gusty winds during the rest of the week.

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