After sustaining the strength of 'very severe cyclonic storm' for last 48 hours, Cyclone Nilofar has now weakened into a severe cyclonic storm and would further weaken into a cyclone storm very shortly.
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the estimated central pressure of the system is 990 hpa. There is a significant rise of 40 hpa since yesterday and this clearly indicates drastic decline in severity of Cyclone Nilofar. Moreover as per the satellite images, the connectivity of clouds around the system is disorganised and is losing the cyclone characteristics speedily.
Presently, it is centered around 20N and 64E and is located at 650 km southwest of Naliya coast in Gujarat, with the maximum sustained winds of 85 kmph gusting up to 110 kmph.
As per the latest forecast, the cyclone will continue to move in north-eastwards and during the next 24 hours, it will rapidly weaken into a depression in northeast Arabian Sea, which is well far away from the Saurashtra and Kutch coast.
We expect, Cyclone Nilofar will return to the status of well marked low pressure area over the sea and will fail to make any significant and effective landfall on October 31 in terms of damaging winds and torrential rains. However, it would trigger moderate rain in Saurashtra and Kutch regions with heavy rain over isolated places.
According to Skymet, wind storms with the speed of 50 kmph gusting up to 70 kmph will be witnessed along and off the coast in both the regions during the afternoon and evening hours of October 31.
Cyclone Nilofar has so far travelled a distance of over 400 km northward and less than 100 km westward.
The existing cyclone Nilofar that originated on October 23 in the Arabian Sea is expected to have a life span of more than 10 days which is climatologically considered a fairly long period for a cyclonic storm. The cyclone is expected to make a landfall in the evening of October 31 and affect the weather till the November 1.
