Today’s scientists understand the earthquakes and their occurrence much better than their breed did 50 years back. Scientists today can predict where major earthquakes are likely to occur based on the movement of the plates in the Earth. However, their quake-predicting prowess is under scanner for predicting earthquakes is challenging.
Why is predicting a challenge?
Weather forecasting is possible to an extent, but foreseeing earthquakes and their time is still a challenge as identifying diagnostic precursors of earthquakes have remained unsuccessful in the past.
The diagnostic precursor is a characteristic pattern of seismic activity or a physical or biological change, which hints at a high probability of an earthquake taking place in a small window of space and time.
For years, scientists have succeeded in predicting aftershocks, additional and smaller quakes following the initial quakes. However, these predictions too are based on past data and aftershocks pattern. Seismologists make use of the research on how an earthquake originating along one fault will cause additional earthquakes in connected faults.
Technological advancement: The real rescue
Analysis says that GPS signals that measure the Total Electron Content (TEC) in the ionosphere, Earth's upper atmosphere, can help in achieving a major breakthrough in understanding the earthquake phenomena and its identification.
Electron counts in a surprising turn and starts increasing as much as 8% above background levels prior to massive earthquakes. The biggest effect is felt above the rupturing fault.
The study led by Kosuke Heki of Hokkaido University in Sapporo, Japan, suggests this electron bump is one of the early-warning signals for devastating earthquakes.
The scientist also analyzed records from the previous earthquakes and found similar ionospheric anomalies in some of the most devastating earthquakes, for instance, Chile earthquake in 2010 at magnitude 8.8, Sumatra earthquake at magnitude 9.2 and Hokkaido earthquake in 1994 at magnitude 8.3.
However, the service has its limitation and can only predict the location and magnitude of the earthquake and not the timing.
Image Credit: kweeper.com
