Safeguarding Indian Agriculture in the Face of Global Trade and Climate Pressures
India’s agriculture is at a pivotal juncture. As the country advances in bilateral trade negotiations with key global partners like the United States, concerns are emerging over the implications of including agriculture, particularly dairy, in these trade agreements.
The Indian Coordination Committee of Farmers Movements (ICCFM) has recently urged the government to exclude agriculture from the proposed India–US trade deal, citing risks to food security, biosafety, and rural livelihoods. While the trade talks are ongoing in Washington, it is important to place this concern in a broader agro-climatic and economic context.
India’s Agriculture: Climate-Exposed and Livelihood-Intensive
Unlike many developed nations, Indian agriculture remains deeply reliant on climate-sensitive factors like monsoon rainfall, temperature fluctuations, and extreme weather events. A significant portion of India's farming population still practices rain-fed agriculture, with limited access to irrigation and climate-resilient infrastructure.
The vulnerability of this sector has been amplified by erratic monsoon patterns, delayed sowing windows, rising heat stress, and increasing incidence of floods and droughts. In such a climate-vulnerable ecosystem, the introduction of heavily subsidised and potentially transgenic agricultural imports raises complex questions about sustainability, equity, and self-reliance.
Global Agricultural Trade vs. Local Realities
The United States, one of the world’s largest exporters of agri-commodities, has seen a sharp drop in export volumes due to shifting global trade dynamics. This includes declines in soybean and corn exports, compounded by trade friction with China, Mexico, and Canada. As a result, surplus US agricultural produce is increasingly looking for newer markets.
However, unlike the US agricultural system, which benefits from mechanisation, large land holdings, and a USD 1.5 trillion subsidy pipeline (under its 2024 Farm Bill), Indian farmers operate within a vastly different scale and resource ecosystem. Introducing duty-free access to such imports may significantly distort domestic pricing, impacting millions of marginal and small-scale farmers who form the backbone of India’s food system.
Technological Growth Must Not Compromise Biosafety
The ICCFM also raises valid concerns around the import of transgenic or genetically modified agricultural products — such as glyphosate-tolerant corn and soy — which are not approved for cultivation or consumption in India. With the growing public and scientific focus on biosafety and sustainable farming practices, any such inclusion in trade agreements must be approached with robust scientific scrutiny and regulatory oversight.
India’s position at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has long emphasised the principle of fair trade and the need to protect domestic producers from subsidised global competition. Aligning any future trade strategy with these principles is essential for ensuring food sovereignty and long-term sustainability.
Climate-Aware Policymaking is the Way Forward
As a meteorologist working closely with agriculture and agri-tech for over a decade, it is evident that the intersection of climate change, global trade, and domestic food systems must be handled with foresight and balance. Trade openness must go hand-in-hand with climate resilience, farmer welfare, and local food system integrity.
India is right to explore new trade partnerships, but care must be taken to avoid undermining sectors already under climatic stress. A forward-looking approach — one that promotes fair trade, strengthens rural economies, and enhances our adaptive capacity — is the need of the hour.
Conclusion
As discussions on the India–US trade agreement continue, it is vital to keep the focus on long-term agricultural resilience. Excluding agriculture from trade deals where risks outweigh benefits may not be a matter of protectionism, but of pragmatism. Climate-smart, farmer-centric policymaking must remain at the heart of any future agreements.
