All Set For Arrival of Northeast Monsoon: Heavy Rains Likely Over South Peninsula

Key Takeaways:

• The northeast monsoon is likely to arrive around October 15, coinciding with the complete withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from India.
• A cyclonic circulation over the Comorin region is expected to trigger moderate to heavy rainfall across South India between October 14 and 20.
• The northeast monsoon primarily covers Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka, including associated Union Territory regions.
• Tamil Nadu is expected to receive normal or slightly above-normal seasonal rainfall despite the influence of strong El Niño conditions.
• Forecast Validity: October 14–20, 2026 (Next 7 Days)
• Northeast Monsoon Onset: Likely around October 15, 2026.

The much-awaited northeast monsoon is just an arm's distance away and is likely to usher in anytime soon. Before its arrival, the southwest monsoon necessarily needs to vacate. At best, the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon and the onset of the northeast monsoon can be simultaneous. It looks like the conditions are favourable for such an event. The northeast monsoon is likely to arrive tomorrow and the southwest monsoon to vacate the country. A similar coincidence happened in the last two consecutive years: 2024 and 2025.

[Check your local weather forecast here]

The main trigger for the monsoon is a weather system marked as a cyclonic circulation over the Comorin region. A north-south trough is extending from the circulation to the Gulf of Mannar and up to the West Central Bay of Bengal, maintaining proximity to the Tamil Nadu coast. Decent rains over the coastlines of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are a precondition for the announcement of the northeast monsoon. The entire South Peninsula is expected to have moderate to heavy rainfall between October 14 and 20.

Unlike the southwest monsoon, which covers the entire country over a span of about 40 days, the northeast monsoon has no such binding. It arrives on a particular day and carries on thereafter, without any further information on its spatial coverage. Yes, the northeast monsoon covers Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, Mahe, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka. Seasonal rains do occur over the rest of Karnataka, Telangana, Goa and some parts of Maharashtra. However, the rainfall count pertains to only five subdivisions of the South Peninsula for record purposes.

The northeast monsoon is the chief rainy season for Tamil Nadu. It is the lifeline for the state, more so this year, when the southwest monsoon was highly deficient. The season will proceed under the influence of strong El Niño conditions, which are known for not having any adverse impact. Seasonal rainfall is likely to be normal or may be a shade better for the state. Some pockets of the state get deluged, as happened in the El Niño year of 2015. The capital city, Chennai, was nearly drowned on December 1, 2015, and subsequently declared a 'disaster zone'.

Trending:

Onset Of Northeast Monsoon: Rainy Days For Bengaluru