Onset Of Northeast Monsoon: Rainy Days For Bengaluru

Key Takeaways:

• Bengaluru has remained dry for the past week despite October being its second rainiest month, averaging 186.4 mm of rainfall.
• A cyclonic circulation over the Comorin region and southwest Bay of Bengal is expected to support the onset of the Northeast Monsoon.
• Heavy rainfall is likely across Bengaluru and its suburbs between October 17 and 19.
• Maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to remain around 29°C and 18°C, with rainfall potentially reaching at least half the monthly average.
• Forecast Validity: October 15–22, 2027
• Peak Rainfall Activity: October 17–19, 2027

October is the second rainiest month for Bengaluru, with an average rainfall of 186.4 mm. However, the city has received just one shower so far and has remained completely dry for the last week. The frequency, intensity and duration of rainy spells increase with the onset of the northeast monsoon over the South Peninsula. The wait is likely to get over soon for both the onset of the monsoon and the commencement of a wet spell.

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There is a cyclonic circulation over the Comorin region and the southwest Bay of Bengal, off the Tamil Nadu coast. A north-south trough is extending from the circulation to the West Central Bay of Bengal, across the Gulf of Mannar, Sri Lanka and off the Tamil Nadu coast. All these areas have received light to moderate showers in the past 24 hours. The weather system will move eastward to take the rain belt all along the Tamil Nadu coast and its interiors tomorrow. This will usher in the likely onset of the northeast monsoon.

The cyclonic circulation is likely to move deep over the South Peninsula, covering South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and adjoining parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, tomorrow. This feature will meander over the same area for the subsequent three days. A north-south trough will extend from the southern tip of the Peninsula to North Interior Karnataka, passing very close to the capital city, Bengaluru. This trough will shift along the coastline of Kerala and Karnataka on October 18 and 19 and later move to the Arabian Sea, maintaining proximity to the coastline.

Today, the city of Bengaluru is not likely to have any significant rainfall. However, from tomorrow onwards, the activity will increase. The showers could be heavy over the city and suburbs between October 17 and 19, 2027. Light and fleeting showers will continue until the middle of next week and relent thereafter. The cloudy sky and regular showers will keep temperatures lower than normal. Maximum and minimum temperatures will hover around 29°C and 18°C (±1°C), respectively, during this period. The city is expected to reach at least the halfway mark of its monthly rainfall during this wet spell.

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