August Ends On Deficit Note: Seasonal Shortfall Grows Big

Key Takeaways:

• August deficit: August 2026 closed with a rainfall deficit of 16%, broadly in line with Skymet's revised monsoon forecast.
• Seasonal shortfall: The June-August monsoon rainfall deficit now stands at 14%, following a 35% deficit in June and break-even July.
• Regional stress: More than 50% of India's meteorological sub-divisions are facing rain stress, with Andhra Pradesh and Punjab among the severely deficient areas.
• September outlook: Monsoon activity may improve over select regions from September 1-10, but prospects of a substantial nationwide recovery remain bleak.
• Forecast Validity: Next 10 days.

The month of August 2026 has closed with a monthly rainfall deficit of 16%. Earlier, Skymet, in the revised monsoon forecast, had indicated a similar margin for the month. With a monthly shortfall of 35% in June and break-even in July, the monsoon season 2026, between June and August, has a deficit of 14% rainfall. With no reassurance from the month of September, the scare of seasonal drought cannot be ruled out. Even if the month closes with a marginal shortfall of 10% rainfall, the season 2026 will still observe an overall deficit of about 13%, bad enough for the country to go into a drought after a gap of over 10 years, since 2014.

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The month of August had started with a carry-over of 12% shortfall during the first half of the season. Barring a day or two, the complete month witnessed below-normal rainfall throughout. In the second half of the month, the seasonal deficit was stuck between 13%-14%. With the poor show of August, rain stress has grown big over more than 50% of the meteorological sub-divisions of the country. The entire South Peninsula seems to be rain-deficit, with an exorbitant shortfall of over 40% rainfall in Andhra Pradesh. The worry becomes larger as the prospects of any decent recovery are looking bleak. So is the case with the western and some central parts of the country, like Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Gujarat, which have gone deficit with a shortfall of over 25% rainfall. The state of Punjab, the agri-bowl of North India, is facing a crucial challenge to get over the seasonal shortfall of 35% rainfall, as of date.

The withdrawal time of the southwest monsoon is now coming closer. Officially, it starts on 17th September from the border posts of West Rajasthan. However, it may not wait that long this season and may make a repeat of last year, when the retreat commenced a few days earlier than schedule. The only silver lining is the prevailing low-pressure area over West Bengal, Odisha and Jharkhand. The system may track across the central parts of the country. Moderate to heavy rains are expected over the eastern states and Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. The peripheral activity will reach the eastern parts of Rajasthan, albeit for a couple of days only. The monsoon is likely to be active over select parts of the country between 01st and 10th September. The southern parts of the country, along with the extreme western border states, may have to live in misery.

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