Heavy Monsoon Rains Unlikely In Mumbai: Light-Moderate Showers For Next One Week

Key Takeaways:

• Mumbai has recorded 191 mm of rainfall so far in August against the monthly average of 560.8 mm.
• Light to moderate rainfall is expected over Mumbai till August 18, without any significant heavy rain spell.
• Isolated heavy showers may remain confined to southern Konkan, including Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg.
• Rainfall intensity is expected to reduce after August 18, and August may eventually remain well short of its monthly rainfall target.
• Forecast Validity: Next 3 to 5 days.

August is the second rainiest month for Mumbai, with an average of 560.8 mm of rainfall. The city has recorded 191 mm of rainfall so far this month. The airport observatory, Santacruz, has recorded moderate showers twice this month but no heavy rainfall as such. Single-digit 24-hour rainfall has been recorded on nine days this month so far. The observatory recorded 4.1 mm of rainfall in the past 24 hours.

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Earlier, the month of July witnessed a large excess of monsoon bursts and recorded 1485 mm of rainfall against the monthly normal of 919.9 mm. The main triggers for heavy rainfall during the monsoon remain an active offshore monsoon trough and the formation of monsoon lows/depressions over the Bay of Bengal.

While over the Bay of Bengal, these systems do accentuate the monsoon surge along the Konkan Coast, but heavy rains lash the city only after the systems arrive over the tri-junction of West Madhya Pradesh, North Madhya Maharashtra and the Gujarat region. The remnant of the last monsoon system over West Madhya Pradesh resulted in 77 mm of rainfall, recorded on 12th August 2026. The rains have eased out as this system has weakened and is likely to get filled up.

There is another system lying over Odisha and West Bengal as a well-marked low-pressure area. This will become a depression soon. However, unlike its predecessor, the weather system will keep meandering over the eastern parts of the country. It will come nowhere close to West Madhya Pradesh.

While the presence of the system over the eastern states, lying as a well-marked cyclonic circulation, will increase the westerly surge from the Arabian Sea, it will not suffice to trigger heavy rainfall. The Konkan Coast will have isolated heavy showers confined to its southern parts, like Sindhudurg and Ratnagiri. The northern area, including Mumbai, may at best have moderate showers.

The depression will remain nearly stagnant for the next 4–5 days and may weaken later. Mumbai can expect light to moderate rainfall till 18th August. The intensity and spread will reduce later. Thereafter, weather activity will remain subdued for a good about week to ten days.

Overall, the month of August may remain sub-par and well short of the monthly target.

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