Heavy Rain Belt Shifts Towards West Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan

Key Takeaways:

• The monsoon rain belt is shifting westwards, with the main focus moving towards North and West Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan on September 4–5.
• Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over parts of Madhya Pradesh, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning.
• East Rajasthan is likely to receive a fresh rain spell, with areas adjoining Madhya Pradesh potentially receiving more intense showers.
• Rainfall intensity over Madhya Pradesh should decrease after September 5, though isolated heavy showers may return during September 6–8.
• Forecast Validity: Next 3 to 5 days.

The monsoon rain belt is gradually shifting westwards across central and northwestern India. After the threat of extremely heavy rainfall over East Madhya Pradesh on September 3, the focus will move towards North and West Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan on September 4 and 5.

A well-marked low-pressure area over Northeast Madhya Pradesh is expected to move west-northwestwards across northern Madhya Pradesh and adjoining southern Uttar Pradesh. The system is supported by the monsoon trough and an upper-air connection with a cyclonic circulation near the northeastern Arabian Sea. This weather pattern will help the rain belt extend farther west.

The risk of isolated extremely heavy rainfall over East Madhya Pradesh is expected to reduce after September 3. However, the ongoing rain spell over central India will continue.

Heavy Rain Over Madhya Pradesh

Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Madhya Pradesh on September 4 and 5. Rainfall may remain fairly widespread across both East and West Madhya Pradesh, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning in several districts.

Intense showers over already saturated areas could cause localised flooding, waterlogging and further stress to standing crops.

Fresh Rain Spell Over East Rajasthan

East Rajasthan is also likely to experience a fresh spell of rain on September 4 and 5. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is expected on September 4, bringing relief after relatively subdued monsoon conditions over many western and northwestern parts of the country.

Areas adjoining Madhya Pradesh are likely to receive the most intense rain because of their proximity to the active monsoon circulation. However, rainfall distribution may remain uneven.

West Rajasthan may experience isolated thunderstorms and lightning on September 4 and 5, but significant heavy rainfall is unlikely.

Possible Impact on Agriculture and Transport

Moderate and well-distributed rainfall may benefit moisture-stressed crops in East Rajasthan. However, intense rain over saturated parts of Madhya Pradesh could waterlog fields and adversely affect soybean, pulses and other standing crops.

Local flooding may disrupt rural roads and low-lying urban areas. Reduced visibility and water accumulation could also slow highway traffic across parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.

Lightning will remain a serious hazard. Farmers and outdoor workers should avoid open fields and take shelter inside substantial buildings whenever thunderstorms approach.

Rainfall intensity over Madhya Pradesh is expected to decrease after September 5. However, isolated heavy showers may return over some districts between September 6 and 8.