Heavy Rainfall To Continue Over Kerala: Major Relief Next Week

Key Takeaways:

• Kerala's seasonal rainfall deficit has reduced from 34% to 23% following a week of heavy rainfall.
• Flooding has severely affected several districts, with Kottayam among the worst hit and over 3,700 people shifted to relief camps.
• The ongoing rains are being driven by a strong Arabian Sea monsoon westerly stream rather than a monsoon depression.
• Another spell of heavy rain is expected between August 6 and 9 before weather conditions improve from August 10.
• Forecast Validity: Next 3 to 5 days.

Kerala has been battered by heavy to very heavy rainfall over the past week, significantly improving its seasonal rainfall deficit but simultaneously pushing the state into a severe flood situation. Until last week, Kerala was facing a seasonal rainfall deficit of nearly 34%. Persistent heavy rains have narrowed the deficit to 23% of the Long Period Average (LPA).

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However, the intense rainfall has resulted in widespread flooding, waterlogging and inundation across several districts. Flooded roads, submerged homes and villages cut off by rising waters present a grim situation. Kottayam remains among the worst-affected districts, where more than 3,700 residents have been shifted to relief camps. Rescue and relief operations continue under challenging conditions as intermittent heavy rainfall persists over parts of the state.

Unlike a typical monsoon flood event, the ongoing rainfall is not being driven by a monsoon depression over the Bay of Bengal or an active offshore trough along the Kerala-Karnataka coast. Instead, a strong monsoon westerly stream from the Arabian Sea, carrying substantial moisture and intrinsic energy, has been continuously striking the Kerala coastline. This powerful moisture surge has been responsible for pushing heavy rainfall deep into the state.

Between August 1 and August 3, Kerala recorded 183.1 mm of rainfall against the normal of 55.5 mm, registering an excess of nearly 230%. During the past 24 hours, rainfall intensity has eased marginally, with the state receiving 21.6 mm against the normal of 17.8 mm.

Despite the recent wet spell, Kerala continues to remain below its seasonal rainfall average. Between June 1 and August 4, 2026, the state has received 1,059.6 mm of rainfall against the normal of 1,374.9 mm, leaving a cumulative shortfall of 235 mm.

Rainfall is expected to remain moderate over most parts of Kerala today and tomorrow, with heavy showers confined to isolated pockets across the extreme northern districts. However, rainfall activity is likely to intensify once again between August 6 and August 9, when heavy rains are expected to lash the Kerala coastline. A more sustained improvement in weather conditions is anticipated from August 10 onward, with rainfall expected to reduce significantly through the following week.

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